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Shifting Perceptions: Unpacking Public Support for Immigrant Workers Integration in the Labor Market
This paper investigates public perceptions and support for policies aimed at integrating immigrant workers into domestic labor markets. Through large-scale surveys involving 6,300 respondents from Canada, Italy, and the United Kingdom, we provide new insights into attitudes toward migrant integration policies and the impact of different information provisions on belief updating. We identify three key factors that shape policy support: pre-existing stereotypes about immigrants, awareness of labor market integration policies for migrants, and, most critically, the perceived economic and social impact of these policies. Our findings reveal that providing information about the economic effects o...
International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy
How does domestic monetary policy in systemic countries spillover to the rest of the world? This paper examines the transmission channel of domestic monetary policy in the cross-border context. We use exogenous shocks to monetary policy in systemically important economies, including the U.S., and local projections to estimate the dynamic effect of monetary policy shocks on bilateral cross-border bank lending. We find robust evidence that an increase in funding costs following an exogenous monetary tightening leads to a statistically and economically significant decline in cross-border bank lending. The effect is weakened during periods of high uncertainty. In contrast, the effect is found to not vary according to the degree of borrower country riskiness, further weakening support for the international portfolio rebalancing channel.
A Tale of Two Margins: Monetary Policy and Capital Misallocation
This paper investigates the impact of monetary policy on capital misallocation, focusing on its heterogeneous effects on firms. Using Spanish firm-level data spanning 1999 to 2019, we demonstrate that expansionary monetary policy leads to a reduction in capital misallocation, measured by the within-industry dispersion of firms’ marginal revenue product of capital (MRPK). To analyze the underlying mechanism, we first examine the intensive margin and find that high-MRPK firms exhibit a greater increase in investment and debt financing relative to low-MRPK firms following a monetary policy easing surprise. We also find that a firm’s MRPK serves as a stronger determinant of its investment se...
ECB Euro Liquidity Lines
Central bank liquidity lines have gained momentum since the global financial crisis as a crosscurrency liquidity management tool. We provide a complete timeline of the ECB liquidity line announcements and study their signalling and spillback effects. The announcement of an ECB euro liquidity line decreases the premium paid by foreign agents to borrow euros in FX markets relative to currencies not covered by these facilities by 51 basis points. Consistent with a stylized model, bank equity prices increase by around 1.75% in euro area countries highly exposed via banking linkages to countries whose currencies are targeted by liquidity lines.
Mining the Gap: Extracting Firms’ Inflation Expectations From Earnings Calls
Using a novel approach involving natural language processing (NLP) algorithms, we construct a new cross-country index of firms' inflation expectations from earnings call transcripts. Our index has a high correlation with existing survey-based measures of firms' inflation expectations, it is robust to external validation tests and is built using a new method that outperforms other NLP algorithms. In an application of our index to United States, we uncover some facts related to firm's inflation expectations. We show that higher expected inflation translates into future inflation. Going into the firms level dimension of our index, we show departures from a rational framework in firms' inflation expectations and that firms' attention to the central enhances monetary policy effectiveness.
Building a Culture of Health
This ambitious volume sets out to understand how every company impacts public health and introduces a robust model, rooted in organizational and scientific knowledge, for companies committed to making positive contributions to health and wellness. Focusing on four interconnected areas of corporate impact, it not only discusses the business imperative of promoting a healthier society and improved living conditions worldwide, but also provides guidelines for measuring a company’s population health footprint. Examples, statistics and visuals showcase emerging corporate involvement in public health and underscore the business opportunities available to companies that invest in health. The auth...
Assessing the Economic Impacts of Environmental Policies Evidence from a Decade of OECD Research
Over the past decades, governments have gradually adopted more rigorous environmental policies to tackle challenges associated with pressing environmental issues, such as climate change. The ambition of these policies is, however, often tempered by their perceived negative effects on the economy.
Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence?
How often have wage-price spirals occurred, and what has happened in their aftermath? We investigate this by creating a database of past wage-price spirals among a wide set of advanced economies going back to the 1960s. We define a wage-price spiral as an episode where at least three out of four consecutive quarters saw accelerating consumer prices and rising nominal wages. Perhaps surprisingly, only a small minority of such episodes were followed by sustained acceleration in wages and prices. Instead, inflation and nominal wage growth tended to stabilize, leaving real wage growth broadly unchanged. A decomposition of wage dynamics using a wage Phillips curve suggests that nominal wage growth normally stabilizes at levels that are consistent with observed inflation and labor market tightness. When focusing on episodes that mimic the recent pattern of falling real wages and tightening labor markets, declining inflation and nominal wage growth increases tended to follow – thus allowing real wages to catch up. We conclude that an acceleration of nominal wages should not necessarily be seen as a sign that a wage-price spiral is taking hold.
World Economic Outlook, October 2023
The latest World Economic Outlook reports signs that policy tightening is starting to cool activity despite core inflation proving persistent. Risks are more balanced as banking sector stress has receded, but they remain tilted to the downside. Monetary policy should stay the course to bring inflation to target, while fiscal consolidation is needed to tackle soaring debts. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.
World Economic Outlook, October 2022
Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation.
