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Imperfect Knowledge and Monetary Policy
Based on lectures given as part of The Stone Lectures in Economics, this book discusses the problem of formulating monetary policy in practice, under the uncertain circumstances which characterize the real world. The first lecture highlights the limitations of decision rules suggested by the academic literature and recommends an approach involving, first, a firm reliance on the few fundamental and robust results of monetary economics and, secondly, a pragmatic attitude to policy implementation, taking into consideration lessons from central banking experience. The second lecture revisits Milton Friedman's questions about the effects of active stabilization policies on business cycle fluctuations. It explores the implications of a simple model where the policy maker has imperfect knowledge about potential output and the private sector forms expectations according to adaptive learning. This lecture shows that imperfect knowledge limits the scope for active stabilization policy and strengthens the case for conservatism.
Monetary Policy in the Euro Area
A non-technical analysis of the monetary policy strategy, institutions and operational procedures of the Eurosystem, first published in 2001.
Monetary Policy in Times of Crisis
The first twenty years of the European Central Bank offer a unique insight into how a central bank can navigate macroeconomic insecurity and crisis. This volume examines the structures and decision-making processes behind the complex measures taken by the ECB to tackle some of the toughest economic challenges in the history of modern Europe.
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind
“Leaning against the wind” (LAW) with a higher monetary policy interest rate may have benefits in terms of lower real debt growth and associated lower probability of a financial crisis but has costs in terms of higher unemployment and lower inflation, importantly including a higher cost of a crisis when the economy is weaker. For existing empirical estimates, costs exceed benefits by a substantial margin, even if monetary policy is nonneutral and permanently affects real debt. Somewhat surprisingly, less effective macroprudential policy and generally a credit boom, with resulting higher probability, severity, or duration of a crisis, increases costs of LAW more than benefits, thus further strengthening the strong case against LAW.
Handbook of Monetary Economics Vols 3A+3B Set
How have monetary policies matured during the last decade? The recent downturn in economies worldwide have put monetary policies in a new spotlight. In addition to their investigations of new tools, models, and assumptions, they look carefully at recent evidence on subjects as varied as price-setting, inflation persistence, the private sector's formation of inflation expectations, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism. They also reexamine standard presumptions about the rationality of asset markets and other fundamentals. Stopping short of advocating conclusions about the ideal conduct of policy, the authors focus instead on analytical methods and the changing interactions among the...
Beyond Divine Coincidence
During the so-called Great Moderation the variability of output, employment and inflation declined substantially in most of the major economies. Because of this positive co-movement the ultimate objective of monetary policy was clear. By stabilizing inflation output will also stay at its potential and the central bank does not face any trade-off between its targets – a situation known as the divine coincidence. With the onset of the financial crisis 2007 these relationships changed. This book contributes to the research on the optimal macroeconomic policy design in the presence of financial frictions. These are incorporated via the cost channel approach into a two-country currency union model. Ultimately, a supply-side effect arises which lowers the efficiency of monetary policy - divine coincidence is not possible any more. Three questions are in the focus of interest of this analysis: What is the optimal monetary policy in the presence of country-specific financial frictions? What role can fiscal policy play? Is macroprudential policy able to improve welfare if the central bank targets a financial stability measure?
European Currency Crises and After
The speculative crises of 1992-93, which shook the EMS, left in their wake a series of questions about the monetary future of Europe, exchange rate behaviour and exchange-rate policy. This book explores these questions from the varying standpoints of econo
Monetary and Fiscal Policies in EMU
Leading scholars and policy makers examine the challenges that are facing economic policies in the EMU today.
Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies of the Euro Area
This paper examines monetary and exchange rate policies of the euro area. The paper reviews the European Central Bank’s definition of price stability, and examines the factors determining “the optimal rate of inflation” in the euro area. It reviews the benefits of price stability, including the reduction in the distortions of savings and investment behavior that stem from the interaction between nominal tax systems and inflation. It then goes on to evaluate arguments for maintaining a small positive inflation rate in the context of the euro area.
Policymaking in the European Central Bank
Drawing on numerous interviews with high-ranking and founding members of the European Central Bank (ECB), Karl Kaltenthaler identifies and explains the factors that shape the bank's domestic and international monetary strategies. The policy-making model that offers the best roadmap to a healthy economy is that of the German Bundesbank. To secure the long-term needs of the economy, the decisionmakers in the ECB have created a model that attempts to replicate the Bundesbank's success at the European level and to lend credibility to their own policies. Offering unprecedented access to internal decisionmaking at the ECB, Policymaking in the European Central Bank will interest readers who want to understand this important European institution.
