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Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century
Deterrence remains a primary doctrine for dealing with the threat of nuclear weapons in the 21st century. The author reviews the history of nuclear deterrence and calls for a renewed intellectual effort to address the relevance of concepts such as first strike, escalation, extended deterrence, and other Cold War-era strategies in today's complex world of additional superpowers, smaller nuclear powers, and nonstate actors.
Out of the Ordinary
Presents a unique approach to selecting and assembling disparate pieces of information to produce a general understanding of a threat. The Atypical Signal Analysis and Processing schema identifies atypical behavior potentially related to terror activity; puts it into context; generates and tests hypotheses; and focuses analysts' attention on the most significant findings. A supporting conceptual architecture and specific techniques for identifying and analyzing out-of-the-ordinary information are also described.
High-Performance Government
In 2003, the National Commission on the Public Service, chaired by Paul Volcker, issued a report detailing problems within the federal government today and recommending changes in its organization, leadership, and operations. This book suggests practical ways to implement the recommendations and defines a research agenda for the future. Thirteen essays address the primary problem areas identified by the Volcker Commission, and the commission report itself is included.
Securing Health
RAND researchers analyzed the health components of seven post-World War II nation-building efforts conducted after major conflicts-Germany, Japan, Somalia, Haiti, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq-and found that two factors are correlated with successful health outcomes: planning and coordination, and infrastructure and resources.
China's International Behavior
The expanding scope of China's international activities is one of the newest and most important trends in global affairs. Its global activism is continually changing and has so many dimensions that it immediately raises questions about its current and long-term intentions. This monograph analyzes how China defines its international objectives, how it is pursuing them, and what it means for U.S. economic and security interests.
Afghan Peace Talks
The objective of a negotiated peace in Afghanistan has been firmly embraced by most of the potential parties to a treaty. However, arriving at an agreement about the sequencing, timing, and prioritization of peace terms is likely to be difficult, given the divergence in the parties' interests and objectives. The U.S. objective in these negotiations should be a stable and peaceful Afghanistan that neither hosts nor collaborates with terrorists.
A Portrait of the Visual Arts
The third in a series that examines the state of the arts in America, this analysis shows, in addition to lines around the block for special exhibits, well-paid superstar artists, flourishing university visual arts programs, and a global expansion of collectors, developments in the visual arts also tell a story of rapid, even seismic change, systemic imbalances, and dislocation.
Future Army Bandwidth Needs and Capabilities
As the Army migrates to a new force structure that is knowledge-based and network-centric, the issue of bandwidth, which facilitates communications capacity, has become increasingly critical. Increases in the number of network participants create shortages of bandwidth supply. The authors examine the Army's projected demands for communications capacity and describe steps that can be taken to address the likely gap between demand and available supply.
Deterrence
This book examines six decades of RAND Corporation research on deterrence for lessons relevant to the current and future strategic environments.
Software Cost Estimation and Sizing Methods
Recommends an approach to improving the utility and accuracy of software cost estimates by exposing uncertainty (in understanding the project) and reducing the risks associated with developing the estimates. The approach focuses on characteristics of the estimation process (such as which methods and models are most appropriate for a given situation) and the nature of the data used (such as software size), describing symptoms and warning signs of risk in each factor, and risk-mitigation strategies.
