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The Flaw of Averages
A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savageknown for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. I...
The Flaw of Averages
"Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." —William J. Perry, former U.S. Secretary of Defense "Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible . . . the Distribution String . . . represents a major breakthrough in the communication of risk and uncertainty." —Harry Markowitz, Nobel...
Decision Making with Insight
Dr. Sam Savage, who's recognized as a leading innovator in management science education, provides the most hands-on , practical introduction to methods of decision making. This book and accompanying suite of Excel add-ins for quantitative analysis covers Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees, queuing simulations, optimization, Markov chains, and forecasting. The Insight add-ins have been developed over several years by the author.
The Flaw of Averages
A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savageknown for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. I...
Savage Sam
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Writing a Professional Life
This is the first collection of narratives by practicing technical communicators telling their own personal stories about the workplace and their lives on the job. The authors portray a wide range of jobs: writers, editors, interface designers, marketing writers, and trainers working in 9 different technical fields, including software, R&D, engineering, medicine, transportation, and telecommunications. The stories vividly demonstrate the unique power of narrative as a teaching and learning tool. Unlike fabricated cases, these real-life narratives show new and veteran technical writers at work on the job, dealing with tasks, clients, and co-workers, and revealing their insights, values, and attitudes about their work. The stories also show the skills required in the profession and the ethical and other issues raised in the course of the workday. For anyone interested in technical communication and professional writing.
Savage Texas
The Greatest Western Writer Of The 21st Century In a blockbuster new series, America's leading Western writer captures the most violent chapter in frontier history—in the saga of a Yankee with a rifle, an outlaw with a grudge, and a little slice of hell called. . . Savage Texas For renegades and pioneers, there is no place like Texas—as long as you have a gun and the guts to use it. Now, the Civil War is over. Carpetbaggers and scalawags rule Austin. Soldiers return to pillaged homes. Longhorns roam the wilds and the state is in chaos. Especially in a town called Hangtree. Sam Heller and Johnny Cross are Hangtree's newest citizens: Heller is a former Yankee soldier, a deadly shot, and a believer in right from wrong. Cross is a gun for hire with dark dreams of wealth and power—at any cost. Hangtree, with its rich grazing land and nearby mineral deposits, soon erupts in murderous violence. By fate and by choice, these two strangers will find themselves on opposite sides of the law. And Hangtree will soon erupt in murderous violence
Introduction to Crowd Science
Includes Case Studies from a Range of Event Sites Introduction to Crowd Science examines the growing rate of crowd-related accidents and incidents around the world. Using tools, methods, and worked examples gleaned from over 20 years of experience, this text provides an understanding of crowd safety. It establishes how crowd accidents and incidents (specifically mass fatalities in crowded spaces) can occur. The author explores the underlying causes and implements techniques for crowd risk analysis and crowd safety engineering that can help minimize and even eliminate occurrences altogether. Understand Overall Crowd Dynamics and Levels of Complex Structure The book outlines a simple modeling ...
The Savage God
An intelligent and sympathetic analysis of one of the true taboos of modern life. Using the untimely death of the poet and friend, Sylvia Plath, as a point of departure, Al Alvarez confronts the controversial and often taboo area of human behaviour: suicide. The Savage God explores the cultural attitudes, theories, truths and fallacies surrounding suicide and refracts them through the windows of philosophy, art and literature: following the black thread leading from Dante, through Donne, Chatterton and the Romantic Agony, to Dada and Pavese. Entwined within this sensitive study is the author's deeply personal account of his own unsuccessful suicide attempt, and together they form the most fa...
The Foundations of Statistics
Classic analysis of the foundations of statistics and development of personal probability, one of the greatest controversies in modern statistical thought. Revised edition. Calculus, probability, statistics, and Boolean algebra are recommended.
