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New Evidence on the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area
This paper examines the anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area based on data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The analysis shows that the overall distribution of medium- and long-term inflation forecasts has changed considerably following the global financial crisis. Moreover, micro level expectations of professional forecasters are found to be sensitive to short-term economic developments. These patterns suggest that euro area inflation expectations are significantly less anchored to the ECB's definition of price stability in recent years compared to the pre-crisis period.
The Economic Costs of the Coronavirus Shutdown for Selected European Countries
This paper presents scenarios of the shutdown costs in terms of lost value added for Austria, France, Italy, Germany, Spain, Switzerland and UK. The shutdown phase will lead to considerable production losses and large declines in GDP this year. Lasting longer than a month, the losses within the EU quickly reach dimensions well beyond the growth slump of previous recessions or natural disasters. Shutdown costs justify almost every conceivable investment in health policy measures which allow to combine a resumption of production with further fight against the epidemic.
Forecasting Regional Industrial Production with High-frequency Electricity Consumption Data
In this paper, we study the predictive power of electricity consumption data for regional economic activity. Using unique weekly and monthly electricity consumption data for the second-largest German state, the Free State of Bavaria, we conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find that electricity consumption is the best performing indicator in the nowcasting setup and has higher accuracy than other conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the weekly electricity consumption indicator also provides good predictions about industrial activity in the current month even with only one week of information. Overall, our results indicate that regional electricity consumption offers a promising avenue to measure and forecast regional economic activity.
How to Finance Climate Change Policies?
Climate change policies have been rising to the top of the global political agenda, but how should governments finance them? Public economists propose solutions based on economic theory, but their political feasibility depends on voters' support, and ordinary households often neglect economic theory and have different views about efficiency and fairness. We design a large-scale information experiment to assess a representative population's beliefs about alternative forms of financing. We randomly provide information about which groups contribute more to or benefit from climate change and compare the support for alternative financing schemes across informed and uninformed consumers. Informed ...
Geldanlage in Zeiten der Inflation
Nach jahrelanger Niedrigzins-Politik durch die EZB und andere Notenbanken hat sich ein Effekt eingestellt, mit dem Währungsexperten schon seit einiger Zeit rechneten: Die Inflationsrate stieg. Zwei Effekte verstärken diesen Trend: die durch den Ukrainekrieg verursachte Knappheit an fossilen Brennstoffen und die anhaltenden, coronabedingten Störungen der weltweiten Lieferketten. Jetzt ist die Inflation in Deutschland so hoch wie lange nicht mehr. Sein Geld in diesen Zeiten vor der Inflation zu schützen ist eine Herausforderung. Wer dachte, Gold sei das Sicherste, musste seit Anfang März einen Verlust von rund 8 Prozent in Euro hinnehmen. Das ist deutlich mehr, als das Geld in diesem Zeit...
Klimapolitik
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ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2024: Neue Hoffnung, aber (noch) kein Sommermärchen
Inhalt: 1. Lage und Prognose der Weltwirtschaft 2. Lage und Prognose der deutschen Wirtschaft 3. Potenzialschätzung und Mittelfristprojektion 4. Zur Finanzpolitik in Deutschland.
ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2021
Inhalt: 1. Lage und Prognose der Weltwirtschaft 2. Lage und Prognose der deutschen Wirtschaft 3.Potenzialschätzung und Mittelfristprojektion 4. Zur Finanzpolitik in Deutschland.
ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2023
Inhalt: 1. Lage und Prognose der Weltwirtschaft 2. Lage und Prognose der deutschen Wirtschaft 3. Potenzialschätzung und Mittelfristprojektion 4. Zur Finanzpolitik in Deutschland.
