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Smart Management
Why successful leaders must embrace simple strategies in an increasingly uncertain and complex world. Making decisions is one of the key tasks of managers, leaders, and professionals. In Smart Management, Jochen Reb, Shenghua Luan, and Gerd Gigerenzer demonstrate how business leaders can utilize heuristics—simple decision-making strategies adapted to the task at hand. In a world that has become increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA), the authors make the case against complex analytical methods that quickly reach their limits. This against-the-grain approach leads to decisions that are not only faster but also more accurate, transparent, and easier to learn about, c...
Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making
The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law.
Simple Heuristics in a Social World
This title invites readers to discover the simple heuristics that people use to navigate the complexities and surprises of environments populated with others.
Cognitive Operations
This book examines how people make decisions under risk and uncertainty in operational settings and opens the black box by specifying the cognitive processes that lead to human behavior. Drawing on economics, psychology and artificial intelligence, the book provides an innovative perspective on behavioral operations. It shows how to build optimization as well as heuristic models for describing human behavior and how to compare such models on various dimensions such as predictive power and transparency, as well as discussing interventions for improving human behavior. This book will be particularly valuable to academics and practitioners who seek to select a modeling approach that suits the operational decision at hand.
Nudging
How “nudges” by government can empower citizens without manipulating their preferences or exploiting their biases. We’re all familiar with the idea of “nudging”—using behavioral mechanisms to encourage people to make certain choices—popularized by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein in their bestselling 2008 book Nudge. This approach, also known as “libertarian paternalism,” goes beyond typical programs that simply provide information and incentives; nudges can range from automatic enrollment in a pension plan to flu-shot scheduling. In Nudging, Riccardo Viale explores the evolution of nudging and proposes new approaches that would empower citizens without manipulating them pa...
Judgment and Decision Making at Work
Employees are constantly making decisions and judgments that have the potential to affect themselves, their families, their work organizations, and on some occasion even the broader societies in which they live. A few examples include: deciding which job applicant to hire, setting a production goal, judging one’s level of job satisfaction, deciding to steal from the cash register, agreeing to help organize the company’s holiday party, forecasting corporate tax rates two years later, deciding to report a coworker for sexual harassment, and predicting the level of risk inherent in a new business venture. In other words, a great many topics of interest to organizational researchers ultimate...
Complex Problem Solving Beyond the Psychometric Approach
Complex problem solving (CPS) and related topics such as dynamic decision-making (DDM) and complex dynamic control (CDC) represent multifaceted psychological phenomena. In abroad sense, CPS encompasses learning, decision-making, and acting in complex and dynamic situations. Moreover, solutions to problems that people face in such situations are often generated in teams or groups. This adds another layer of complexity to the situation itself because of the emerging issues that arise from the social dynamics of group interactions. This framing of CPS means that it is not a single construct that can be measured by using a particular type of CPS task (e.g. minimal complex system tests), which is...
Classification in the Wild
Rules for building formal models that use fast-and-frugal heuristics, extending the psychological study of classification to the real world of uncertainty. This book focuses on classification--allocating objects into categories--"in the wild," in real-world situations and far from the certainty of the lab. In the wild, unlike in typical psychological experiments, the future is not knowable and uncertainty cannot be meaningfully reduced to probability. Connecting the science of heuristics with machine learning, the book shows how to create formal models using classification rules that are simple, fast, and transparent and that can be as accurate as mathematically sophisticated algorithms developed for machine learning.
Simple Heuristics in a Social World
Simple Heuristics in a Social World invites readers to discover the simple heuristics that people use to navigate the complexities and surprises of environments populated with others. The social world is a terrain where humans and other animals compete with conspecifics for myriad resources, including food, mates, and status, and where rivals grant the decision maker little time for deep thought, protracted information search, or complex calculations. Yet, the social world also encompasses domains where social animals such as humans can learn from one another and can forge alliances with one another to boost their chances of success. According to the book's thesis, the undeniable complexity ...
