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Cognitive Operations
"Attempts to improve decision-making are unlikely to succeed without an understanding of how and why people currently make choices. In this accessible and fascinating book, Konstantinos Katsikopoulos shows how mathematical models of decision processes in operational settings can provide this understanding. Alternative modelling approaches are contrasted, and clear criteria provided to determine whether a model is likely to provide useful insights in a range of practical situations. Managers facing decisions in a risky and uncertain world and researchers in the field of operations will have much to gain from the ideas presented here". -Paul Goodwin, Emeritus Professor, University of Bath, UK ...
Risk Intelligence
We must make judgments all the time when we can't be certain of the risks. Should we have that elective surgery? Trust the advice of our financial adviser? Take that new job we've been offered? How worried should we be about terrorist attacks? In this lively and groundbreaking book, pioneering researcher Dylan Evans introduces a newly discovered kind of intelligence for assessing risks, demonstrating how vital this risk intelligence is in our lives and how we can all raise our RQs in order to make better decisions every day. Evans has spearheaded the study of risk intelligence, devising a simple test to measure a person's RQ which when posted online sparked a storm of interest and was taken ...
When Military Obedience and Restrictions on War Powers Collide
This provocative book explores the precarious conflict between the legal restrictions on governments’ power to take military action and the legal liability of soldiers to execute military orders. Adopting a multidisciplinary approach, this insightful book challenges the current distribution of trust between military decision-makers and agents.
Simpler
For nearly four years, Sunstein, bestselling author and President Obama's "Regulatory Czar," helped to oversee a revolution in better government. He explains how and why--and what comes next.
The Intelligence of Intuition
The power of intuition is clear, but there is a common mistrust of intuition as well. Researchers often confuse intuition with the arbitrary or systematically error-prone judgments of inept decision makers. To dispel the myths surrounding intuition, this book presents a scientific perspective.
Simple Heuristics in a Social World
Simple Heuristics in a Social World invites readers to discover the simple heuristics that people use to navigate the complexities and surprises of environments populated with others. The social world is a terrain where humans and other animals compete with conspecifics for myriad resources, including food, mates, and status, and where rivals grant the decision maker little time for deep thought, protracted information search, or complex calculations. Yet, the social world also encompasses domains where social animals such as humans can learn from one another and can forge alliances with one another to boost their chances of success. According to the book's thesis, the undeniable complexity ...
Ecological Rationality
"More information is always better, and full information is best. More computation is always better, and optimization is best." More-is-better ideals such as these have long shaped our vision of rationality. Yet humans and other animals typically rely on simple heuristics to solve adaptive problems, focusing on one or a few important cues and ignoring the rest, and shortcutting computation rather than striving for as much as possible. In this book, we argue that in an uncertain world, more information and computation are not always better, and we ask when, and why, less can be more. The answers to these questions constitute the idea of ecological rationality: how we are able to achieve intelligence in the world by using simple heuristics matched to the environments we face, exploiting the structures inherent in our physical, biological, social, and cultural surroundings.
What We Think About When We Try Not To Think About Global Warming
"Today, about 98 percent of scientists affirm that climate change is human made, and about 2 percent still question it. Despite that overwhelming majority, though, about half the population of rich countries, like ours, choose to believe the 2 percent. And, paradoxically, this large camp of deniers grows even larger as more and more alarming proof of climate change has cropped up over the last decades. This disconnect has both climate scientists and activists scratching their heads, growing anxious, and responding, usually, by repeating more facts to 'win' the argument. But, the more climate facts pile up, the greater the resistance to them grows, and the harder it becomes to enact measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prepare communities for the inevitable change ahead. Is humanity up to the task? It is a catch-22 that starts, says psychologist and climate expert Per Espen Stoknes, from an inadequate understanding of the way most humans think, act, and live in the world around them. With dozens of examples, he shows how to retell the story of climate change and apply communication strategies more fit for the task."--Publisher's description.
Human-Centric Decision-Making Models for Social Sciences
The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making...
Nudging Public Policy
This book asks several critical questions relevant to those interested in public policy: What is a nudge? What are the ethical implications of and justifications for nudges? Are we able to have nudges without affecting one’s freedom to choose? In what institutional context are nudges likely to work well and in what context are they likely to fail? The text explores several real-world instances of government attempts at successful choice architecture across a wide range of policy topics: internet privacy laws, environmental policy, education policy, the sharing economy, and creating a national culture. This approach also highlights the spontaneous and evolutionary nature of social instituti...
