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Rapid Modelling for Increasing Competitiveness
A Perspective on Two Decades of Rapid Modeling It is an honor for me to be asked to write a foreword to the Proceedings of the 1st Rapid Modeling Conference. In 1987, when I coined the term “Rapid Modeling” to denote queuing modeling of manufacturing systems, I never imagined that two decades later there would be an international conference devoted to this topic! I am delighted to see that there will be around 40 presentations at the conference by leading researchers from aroundthe world, and about half of these presentationsare represented by written papers published in this book. I congratulate the conference organizers and program committee on the success of their efforts to hold the ...
Simple Heuristics in a Social World
Simple Heuristics in a Social World invites readers to discover the simple heuristics that people use to navigate the complexities and surprises of environments populated with others. The social world is a terrain where humans and other animals compete with conspecifics for myriad resources, including food, mates, and status, and where rivals grant the decision maker little time for deep thought, protracted information search, or complex calculations. Yet, the social world also encompasses domains where social animals such as humans can learn from one another and can forge alliances with one another to boost their chances of success. According to the book's thesis, the undeniable complexity ...
Improving Bayesian Reasoning: What Works and Why?
We confess that the first part of our title is somewhat of a misnomer. Bayesian reasoning is a normative approach to probabilistic belief revision and, as such, it is in need of no improvement. Rather, it is the typical individual whose reasoning and judgments often fall short of the Bayesian ideal who is the focus of improvement. What have we learnt from over a half-century of research and theory on this topic that could explain why people are often non-Bayesian? Can Bayesian reasoning be facilitated, and if so why? These are the questions that motivate this Frontiers in Psychology Research Topic. Bayes' theorem, named after English statistician, philosopher, and Presbyterian minister, Thom...
Adaptive Thinking
Where do new ideas come from? What is social intelligence? Why do social scientists perform mindless statistical rituals? This vital book is about rethinking rationality as adaptive thinking: to understand how minds cope with their environments, both ecological and social. Gerd Gigerenzer proposes and illustrates a bold new research program that investigates the psychology of rationality, introducing the concepts of ecological, bounded, and social rationality. His path-breaking collection takes research on thinking, social intelligence, creativity, and decision-making out of an ethereal world where the laws of logic and probability reign, and places it into our real world of human behavior and interaction. Adaptive Thinking is accessibly written for general readers with an interest in psychology, cognitive science, economics, sociology, philosophy, artificial intelligence, and animal behavior. It also teaches a practical audience, such as physicians, AIDS counselors, and experts in criminal law, how to understand and communicate uncertainties and risks.
Psychological Perspectives on Risk and Risk Analysis
This authoritative collection goes beyond economic statistics and probability data to offer a robust psychological understanding of risk perception and risk taking behavior. Expert contributors examine various risk domains in life, and pinpoint cognitive, emotional, and personality factors contributing to individual differences in risk taking as well as the many nuances social demographics (e.g., culture, gender) bring to risk decisions. Coverage takes competing theories and studies into account to identify mechanisms involved in processing and acting on uncertainty. And implications and applications are demonstrated in varied fields, from updated risk models for the insurance sector to impr...
Ecological Rationality
"More information is always better, and full information is best. More computation is always better, and optimization is best." More-is-better ideals such as these have long shaped our vision of rationality. Yet humans and other animals typically rely on simple heuristics to solve adaptive problems, focusing on one or a few important cues and ignoring the rest, and shortcutting computation rather than striving for as much as possible. In this book, we argue that in an uncertain world, more information and computation are not always better, and we ask when, and why, less can be more. The answers to these questions constitute the idea of ecological rationality: how we are able to achieve intelligence in the world by using simple heuristics matched to the environments we face, exploiting the structures inherent in our physical, biological, social, and cultural surroundings.
Hindsight
Mark Freeman argues here that hindsight--looking back over the past from the standpoint of the present--can be a profoundly important source of understanding, insight, and moral growth. Indeed, hindsight can be, and often is, a source of truth--of a sort, Freeman contends, that is only available by looking backward. Drawing on psychology, philosophy, literature, memoir, and personal experience, this engaging volume offers an insightful exploration of the role of hindsight both in discerning the truth of one's past and in crafting a good and worthy life.
Model-Based Reasoning in Scientific Discovery
The volume is based on the papers that were presented at the Interna tional Conference Model-Based Reasoning in Scientific Discovery (MBR'98), held at the Collegio Ghislieri, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy, in December 1998. The papers explore how scientific thinking uses models and explanatory reasoning to produce creative changes in theories and concepts. The study of diagnostic, visual, spatial, analogical, and temporal rea soning has demonstrated that there are many ways of performing intelligent and creative reasoning that cannot be described with the help only of tradi tional notions of reasoning such as classical logic. Traditional accounts of scientific reasoning have restricted t...
Cognition
Explains foundational experiments and basic theories of cognition, and explains how they relate, in a clear, structured narrative.
Encyclopedia of Social Psychology
Contains entries arranged alphabetically from A to I that provide information on ideas and concepts in the field of social psychology.
