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Presents a wide range of forecasting methods useful for undergraduate or graduate students majoring in business management, economics, or engineering. Develops skills for selecting the proper methodology. Integrates forecasting with the planning and decision-making activities within an organization. Methods of forecasting include: decomposition, regression analysis, and econometrics. Stresses the strengths and weaknesses of the individual methods in various types of organizational areas. Numerous examples are included.
Known from its last editions as the "Bible of Forecasting", the third edition of this authoritative text has adopted a new approach-one that is as new as the latest trends in the field: "Explaining the past is not adequate for predicting the future". In other words, accurate forecasting requires more than just the fitting of models to historical data. Inside, readers will find the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. And readers will develop the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts.
Makridakis presents a non-technical reassessment of forecasting, planning, and strategy that will be welcomed by every manager who has ever struggled with a long-range plan.
"A Wiley/Hamilton publication." Includes bibliographies and index.
The role and importance of forecasting in management; Quantitative forecasting methods; Management judgement in forecasting; Forecasting applications.
STATISTICS. ECONOMETRIC METHODS. EXTRAPOLATION METHODS. BOX-JENKINS. AEP FILTERING. BAYESIAN FORECASTING. NAIVE METHOD. MOVING AVERAGE METHOD. EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD. REGRESSION METHOD. FORSYS METHOD. SALES FORECASTING.
INTERMITTENT DEMAND FORECASTING The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting Intermittent Demand Forecasting is for anyone who is interested in improving forecasts of intermittent demand products, and enhancing the management of inventories. Whether you are a practitioner, at the sharp end of demand planning, a software designer, a student, an academic teaching operational research or operations management courses, or a researcher in this field, we hope that the book will inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. If you do so, then you can contribute towards significant economic and environmental benefits. No prior knowledge of ...
Role and application of forecasting in organizations; Introduction to management forecasting; Sales forecasting requirements; Forecasting requirements for operations planning and control; Capacity planning forecasting requirements; Financial forecasting; Forecasting and strategic planning; Forecasting in the electric utility industry; State and local government revenue forecasting; Population forecasting; Forecasting: the issues; Approaches to forecasting; Smoothing methods for short-term planning and control; A practical overview of arima models for time series forecasting; Decomposition methods for medium term planning annnd budgeting; Econometric methods for managerial applications; Judge...
The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of...