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Quantitative foresight modeling to inform the CGIAR research portfolio
This report provides a quantitative assessment of the impacts of alternative investment options on the CGIAR’s SLOs (relating to poverty – SLO1, food and nutrition security – SLO2, and natural resources and ecosystem services – SLO3) in the context of changes in population, income, technology, and climate to 2050 as well as for key SDGs of importance to the developing world. The report serves as a source of information and evidence of the impact of CGIAR efforts in agricultural R&D as well as the role of complementary investments. It is intended to help the CGIAR Centers, CG Research Programs (CRP), system management, and donors to complement other efforts to assess the overall impact and benefits of investing in international and national agricultural research programs.
Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system
This report assesses the cost of adaptation to climate change across a range of future climate scenarios and investment options. We focus on offsetting climate change impacts on hunger through investment in agricultural research, water management, and rural infrastructure in developing countries. We link climate, crop, water, and economic models to (1) analyze scenarios of future change in the agriculture sector to 2050 and (2) assess trade-offs for these investments across key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for poverty, hunger, and water. Our reference projections show that climate change slows progress toward eliminating hunger, with an additional 78 million people facing chronic hun...
International model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade-standard IFPRI multimarket model (IMPACT-SIMM): Technical description for version 1
The International Food Policy Research Institute’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) supports analysis of long-term challenges and opportunities for food, agriculture, and natural resources at global and regional scales. IMPACT is continually being updated and improved to better inform the choices that decisionmakers face today. This document describes a new country-level version of the model. IMPACT-SIMM (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade–Standard IFPRI Multimarket Model) is a partial equilibrium, multi-market, simulation model of the production, supply, and demand of agricultural commoditie...
The palm oil dilemma: Policy tensions among higher productivity, rising demand, and deforestation
Palm oil production has increased rapidly over the past two decades in response to rising demand for its use in food, energy, and industrial applications. Expansion of oil palm plantations presents a dilemma, as they can displace forests and peatlands, leading to biodiversity losses and increased greenhouse gas emissions. Although projections show that expansion of oil palm area will slow with faster yield growth, important concerns remain that will require careful attention from policymakers.
Assessment of outcomes based on the use of PIM-supported foresight modeling work, 2012-2018
This report presents results of a study to assess the use of foresight modeling tools and outputs produced since 2012 and funded through Flagship 1, Cluster 1.1 of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). The goal of this study is to examine how the tools and outputs of foresight modeling supported by PIM through Flagship 1 (hereafter “PIM-supported foresight modeling”) have been used by stakeholders. The study aims to identify as many uses of and outcomes from the PIM-supported foresight modeling as possible. It is by no means comprehensive, but it does cover usage by a wide range of stakeholders from across the CGIAR system, other international organizations, academia, and national governments.
Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation in the Republic of Korea to 2050
As the effects of climate change set in, and population and income growth exert increasing pressure on natural resources, food security is becoming a pressing challenge for countries worldwide. Awareness of these threats is critical to transforming concern into long-term planning, and modeling tools like the one used in the present study are beneficial for strategic support of decision making in the agricultural policy arena. The focus of this investigation is the Republic of Korea, where economic growth has resulted in large shifts in diet in recent decades, in parallel with a decline in both arable land and agricultural production, and a tripling of agricultural imports, compared to the ea...
Quantifying the cost and benefits of ending hunger and undernutrition: Examining the differences among alternative approaches
This brief examines estimates produced by several recent model simulations and frameworks that focus on the cost of ending hunger as well as progress toward other development goals—estimates that range from US$7 billion to US$265 billion per year. The differences among these estimates are largely attributable to the different targeted objectives and policy questions of each modeling exercise, different investment strategies considered, and varying assumptions about the role of different sectors in reducing hunger.
Drivers and disruptors shaping the future of agriculture and the food system in LAC: Climate change and trade tensions
Agri-food production remains vital to the economies in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Food systems are rapidly changing and are driven by income growth, (urban) population growth, shifts in dietary preferences, and agricultural productivity growth. Food systems are also under threat from disrupters like climate change and distorting policies (including trade wars). This paper makes two quantitative, forward-looking assessments for the future of food and agriculture in the LAC region. The first focuses on the long-term prospects - given projected pathways for the main drivers and under the threat of climate change. The second focuses on current vulnerability of LACs agri-food system t...
Cattle, seaweed, and global greenhouse gas emissions
This study is a first attempt to estimate the impact of a red seaweed (Asparagopsis taxiformis) feed additive on total emissions from cattle and the feasibility of scaling up farmed seaweed production to meet projected demand from the livestock sector. The approach used for the analysis combines projections of supply and demand of beef and milk production to 2050 with a cattle herd model that allows calculation of animal categories by age and sex, animal weight and production, and feed intake and methane emissions from cattle. At the time of this study, the seaweed additive showed limited applicability in grazing systems as it has been used experimentally, mostly incorporated in mix rations ...
Gender research in the CGIAR research program on policies, institutions, and markets in 2018 and 2019
This report analyses PIM’s 391 peer-reviewed 2018 and 20191 publications. We highlight key gender findings and discuss the challenges faced by researchers in doing gender analysis, with a view to documenting lessons learned and improving practices. It is hoped that the gaps and strengths identified in this report will be useful inputs for future research under PIM and One CGIAR.
