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The Role of Monetary Policy in Turkey During the Global Financial Crisis
Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit emerging economies by the global financial crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) decreased policy rates by an astounding 1025 basis points over the November 2008 to November 2009 period. In this context, this paper addresses the following broad question: If an inflation targeting framework underpinned by a flexible exchange rate regime was not adopted, how much deeper would the recent recession have been? Counterfactual experiments based on an estimated structural model provide quantitative evidence which suggests that the recession would have been substantially more severe. In other words, the interest rate cuts implemented by the CBRT and exchange rate flexibility both helped substantially soften the impact of the global financial crisis.
The Great Recession
Here, experts assess the role of central banks in responding to the recent financial crisis and in preventing future crises. The contributors focus on monetary policy, the new area of macroprudential policy, and issues of exchange rates, capital flows, and banking and financial markets.
Economic Performance in the Middle East and North Africa
This book investigates the performance of the economies of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), focusing in particular on the role of corruption and the underlying institutional structure in determining economic growth and the prospects for development.
Challenges to Monetary Policy from Financial Globalization
The question of how India should adapt monetary policy to ongoing financial globalization has gained prominence with the recent surge in capital inflows. This paper documents the degree to which India has become financially globalized, both in absolute terms and relative to emerging and developed countries. We find that despite a relatively low degree of openness, India's domestic monetary conditions are highly influenced by global factors. We then review the experiences of countries that have adapted to financial globalization, drawing lessons for India. While we find no strong relationship between the degree of stability in monetary conditions and the broad monetary policy regime, our findings suggest that improvements in monetary operations and communication?sometimes prompted by a shift to an IT regime?have helped stabilize broader monetary conditions. In addition, the experience of countries which used non-standard instruments suggests that room to regulate capital flows effectively through capital controls diminishes as financial integration increases.
Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment in Turkey
"We propose a new methodology to measure exchange rate misalignment for Turkey, which has already undergone a severe economic crisis. We estimate the real exchange rate within a time varying parameter model, where a return-to-normality assumption about the parameters are assumed. Contrary to common belief, it is found that, except the initial four months of the stabilization program, the Turkish Lira remained structurally undervalued for most of 2000. Also, we observe a pattern where the Lira has been structurally overvalued after the crisis in 1994 until 1998, and has displayed structural undervaluation after that"--Economic Research Forum for the Arab Countries, Iran and Turkey web site.
The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations
A behavioral approach to modeling macroeconomic expectations.
Exchange Rate Regimes and Pass-Through
We seek to demonstrate the variations in the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) and identify the shift in the price-setting behavior by placing the emphasis on the implemented exchange rate and monetary policy regimes. Having a history of several distinct monetary regimes, Turkey exhibits a genuine laboratory in this respect. Our empirical results reveal that the pass-through from exchange rates to domestic prices has changed dramatically. We detect breaks in the pass-through coefficients at three episodes, all of which coincide with a shift in monetary/exchange rate regime, lending support to the view that monetary and exchange rate regimes might be among the major determinants of the ERPT process.
The New International Monetary System
The New International Monetary System brings together twelve original contributions by leading scholars and practitioners to a conference convened in May 2008 on the occasion of the retirement of Alexander Swoboda. The contributions are arranged in three main parts. Part I deals with the international financial architecture, Part II examines the ever-controversial role of exchange rate regimes and Part III takes stock of the conduct of monetary policy and the challenges posed by the inflation-targeting strategy. The chapters provide considered assessments of virtually all the hotly debated issues that concern monetary policies seen from an international perspective. Edited by and with an introduction from Charles Wyplosz, the collection includes contributions from some of the key international figures in the field of monetary policy, central banking and exchange rate regimes to discuss contemporary international monetary issues. Contributors include Michael Bordo, Barry Eichengreen, Ronald McKinnon and Charles Goodhart. The volume also contains tributes from Paul Volcker and Jean-Pierre Roth.
