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Are House Prices Rising Too Fast in China?
Sharp increase in house prices combined with the extraordinary Chinese lending growth during 2009 has led to concerns of an emerging real estate bubble. We find that, for China as a whole, the current levels of house prices do not seem significantly higher than would be justified by underlying fundamentals. However, there are signs of overvaluation in some cities’ mass-market and luxury segments. Unlike advanced economies before 2007-8, prices have tended to correct frequently in China.Given persistently low real interest rates, lack of alternative investment and mortgage-to-GDP trend, rapid property price growth in China has, and will continue to have,a structural driver.
Development of Special Economic Zones in India: Impact and implications
Papers presented at a national seminar on Development of special economic zones in India.
Credit and Fiscal Multipliers in China
We jointly estimate credit and fiscal multipliers in China. We use the tenure of the provincial party secretary, interacted with the type of stimulus used in other provinces, to obtain separate instruments for provincial credit and government expenditure. We estimate a fiscal multiplier of 0.8 and a credit multiplier of 0.2 in 2001-2015. The multipliers have changed over time. The fiscal multiplier has increased from 0.75 in 2001-2008 to 1.4 in 2010-2015. The credit multiplier has declined from 0.17 to zero over the same periods. Our results suggest that reducing credit growth in China is unlikely to disrupt output growth, whereas fiscal policy may be effective in supporting macroeconomic adjustment.
Guidebook to Carbon Neutrality in China
This Open Access publication focuses on China’s goal of achieving peak carbon emissions in 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. The book is the first to systematically build a framework combining a top-down and bottom-up analysis of this acute topic. What does carbon neutrality mean for economics in China? Might it imply stagflation or is it an opportunity to maximize the potential of green manufacturing? The book offers a comprehensive analysis of how the pursuit of carbon neutrality may influence the development of China's economy, and the country's biggest industries, while foreseeing the likely changes in people's lifestyles. In total, the book constructs a comprehensive path for China'...
China's Three Decades of Economic Reforms
China's economy continues to grow rapidly, with important consequences for its own society and environment, as well as for the wider world economy. This book provides much-needed insight, using the latest research findings, into China’s successful reform experience and its challenges over three decades.
Energy and Mechanical Engineering
The International Conference on Energy and Mechanical Engineering brought together scientists and engineers from energy and engineering sectors to share and compare notes on the latest development in energy science, automation, control and mechanical engineering. This proceedings compiled and selected 156 articles organized into Energy Science and Technology; Mechanical Engineering; Automation and Control Engineering. Amongst them, are the results and development of Government sponsored research projects undertaken both in universities, research institutes, and across industry, reflecting the state-of-art technological know-how of Chinese scientists. Contents: Energy Science and TechnologyMe...
China’s Path to Consumer-Based Growth
This paper proposes a possible framework for identifying excessive investment. Based on this method, it finds evidence that some types of investment are becoming excessive in China, particularly in inland provinces. In these regions, private consumption has on average become more dependent on investment (rather than vice versa) and the impact is relatively short-lived, necessitating ever higher levels of investment to maintain economic activity. By contrast, private consumption has become more self-sustaining in coastal provinces, in large part because investment here tends to benefit household incomes more than corporates. If existing trends continue, valuable resources could be wasted at a...
Quantitative and Empirical Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamic Macromodels
This book represents an ongoing research agenda the aim of which is to contribute to the Keynesian paradigm in macroeconomics. It examines the Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model, the assumption of intertemporal optimizing behavior of economic agents, competitive markets and price mediated market clearing through flexible wages and prices.
