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The Labor Market Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from US Regions
This paper empirically investigates the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on employment. Exploiting variation in AI adoption across US commuting zones using a shift-share approach, I find that during 2010-2021, commuting zones with higher AI adoption have experienced a stronger decline in the employment-to-population ratio. Moreover, this negative employment effect is primarily borne by the manufacturing and lowskill services sectors, middle-skill workers, non-STEM occupations, and individuals at the two ends of the age distribution. The adverse impact is also more pronounced on men than women.
Advancing India’s Structural Transformation and Catch-up to the Technology Frontier
While India’s growth has been strong in recent decades, its structural transformation remains incomplete. In this paper, we first take stock of India’s growth to date. We find that economic activity has shifted from agriculture to services, but agriculture remains the predominant employer. Catch up to the technological frontier has been uneven, with limited progress in agriculture, but also in construction and trade, which have grown the most in terms of employment. We do find some Indian firms already operating at the technological frontier. These strong performers tend to be large firms. We then consider India’s employment challenge going forward. We find that India needs to create between 143-324 million jobs by 2050 and that doing so and with workers shifting towards more dynamic sectors could boost GDP growth by 0.2-0.5 percentage points. Structural reforms can help India create high-quality jobs and accelerate growth.
Inequality in a More Equal World—Labor Market Gender Gaps in St. Lucia
St. Lucia has enviably high female labor force participation rate and strikingly low participation gap vis-à-vis male. The latter is lower than OECD average and way below world average. Women are also more educated than men. Yet, using a micro dataset of St. Lucia Labor Force Survey over the period 2016-2021, our analysis points towards disproportionate effects of childcare on female participation and unemployment and a substantial gender gap in labor income for workers without higher education. Moreover, the income gap is not explained by observable worker characteristics. While the paper does not explore causal links, this unique feature of high female participation and, yet, considerable...
The Joint Effect of Emigration and Remittances on Economic Growth and Labor Force Participation in Latin America and the Caribbean
We provide a consistent empirical framework to estimate the net joint effect of emigration and remittances on the migrants’ countries of origin key economic variables (GDP growth and labor force participation), while addressing the endogeneity concerns using novel “shift-share” instrumental variables in the spirit of Anelli and others (2023). Understanding this joint impact is crucial for the Latin America and the Caribbean region that has seen a continuous growth in remittances over the past decades, due to steady emigration, and where remittances represent the largest capital inflows for many countries now. Focusing on the past two decades (1999-2019), this study finds that on averag...
The Dynamic Effects of Local Labor Market Shocks on Small Firms in The United States
We use payroll data on over 1 million workers at 80,000 small firms to construct county-month measures of employment, hours, and wages that correct for dynamic changes in sample composition in response to business cycle fluctuations. We use this to estimate the response of small firms' employment, hours and wages following tighter local labor market conditions. We find that employment and hours per worker fall and wages rise. This is consistent with the predictions of the response to a demand shock in the well-known “jobs ladder” model of labor markets. To check this interpretation, we show our results hold when instrumenting for local demand using county-level Department of Defense contract spending. Correction for dynamic sample bias is important -- without it, the hours fall by only one third as much and wages increase by double.
Managing the Development of Digital Marketplaces in Asia
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is accelerating digital transformation across Asia and the Pacific. Digital platforms have become prominent intermediaries or marketplaces that allow the exchange of goods, services, and information. They are opening new transaction channels and ways of using resources while lowering service costs and enhancing market efficiency. This volume of background papers, prepared for the Asian Economic Integration Report 2021, examines the scope and potential benefits of digital platforms, as well as the associated policy issues and challenges. It proposes measures and policies to help maximize social and economic gains while alleviating adverse effects.
Asian Economic Integration Report 2021
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted both supply and demand sides of an interconnected world economy in 2020. Asia and the Pacific was not immune as lockdowns and travel and trade restrictions affected nearly all aspects of cross-border economic activity. This publication examines the initial impact on trade, investment, finance, and people’s mobility across the region as the pandemic struck. It looks at how regional economies individually or collectively respond to the crisis by, for example, leveraging rapid technological progress and digitalization as well as increasing services trade to reconnect and recover. The theme chapter focuses on digital platforms and how they can accelerate digital transformation across the region.
Annual Report
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Women in Early Imperial China
Written for his dissertation at Harvard in 1993, Hinsch's (history, National Chung Cheng U., Taiwan) fascinating study of women during the Qin and Han periods in China provides a useful addition to the history of ancient women as well as life in early imperial China. The lives of women and their roles are examined in several contexts, including cosmology, kinship, law, government, learning, and ritual. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR.
