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This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling depende...
This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty fr...
This book is a collaborative effort from three workshops held over the last three years, all involving principal contributors to the vine-copula methodology. Research and applications in vines have been growing rapidly and there is now a growing need to collate basic results, and standardize terminology and methods. Specifically, this handbook will (1) trace historical developments, standardizing notation and terminology, (2) summarize results on bivariate copulae, (3) summarize results for regular vines, and (4) give an overview of its applications. In addition, many of these results are new and not readily available in any existing journals. New research directions are also discussed.
The Endangered Species Act of 1973 (ESA) is one of the most cherished and reviled laws ever passed. It mandates protection and preservation of all the nation’s species and biodiversity, whatever the cost. It has been a lightning rod for controversy and conflicts between industry/business and environmentalists. In this volume, leading Endangered Species Act experts interpret and propose legislative and administrative changes to prepare the ESA for future challenges. They explore regulations on avoiding harm to and producing benefits for species, cooperation between state and federal agencies, scientific analyses, and the necessary politics to enact their ideas. This is a call to action to chart an enlightened future for the Endangered Species Act that embraces the nation’s moral commitment of 50 years ago to address species extinction constructively, mindful of biodiversity, and as a fixture among the nation’s values and needs. The interconnected web of life includes all living species that depend on each other for survival, us among them. The stakes—our very future—are too high to ignore.
Biosecurity: A Systems Perspective provides an overview of biosecurity as a system of related components, actors, and risks. This book—directed to the biosecurity practitioner, generalist scientist, and student—introduces overall features of the biosecurity system while walking the reader through the most up-to-date research on each step of the continuum (i.e. pre-border, border, and post-border activities). This book, which explicitly incorporates economic and social dimensions as well as varied decision-making contexts, paves the way for a more systemic approach to biosecurity risk management. The work spans statistics, ecology, mathematics, economics, veterinary science, human medicin...
This anthology brings together a diversity of key texts in the emerging field of Existential Risk Studies. It serves to complement the previous volume The Era of Global Risk: An Introduction to Existential Risk Studies by providing open access to original research and insights in this rapidly evolving field. At its heart, this book highlights the ongoing development of new academic paradigms and theories of change that have emerged from a community of researchers in and around the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. The chapters in this book challenge received notions of human extinction and civilization collapse and seek to chart new paths towards existential security and hope. The vo...
This book outlines how to conduct a complete environmental risk assessment. The first part documents the psychology and philosophy of risk perception and assessment, introducing a taxonomy of uncertainty and the importance of context. It provides a critical examination of the use and abuse of expert judgement and goes on to outline approaches to hazard identification and subjective ranking that account for uncertainty and context. The second part of the book describes technical tools that can assist risk assessments to be transparent and internally consistent. These include interval arithmetic, ecotoxicological methods, logic trees and Monte Carlo simulation. These methods have an established place in risk assessments in many disciplines and their strengths and weaknesses are explored. The last part of the book outlines some new approaches, including p-bounds and information-gap theory, and describes how quantitative and subjective assessments can be used to make transparent decisions.
Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics and the Affiliated Conferences, Nice, France, 24-27 July 2024.