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Essays on Predictability of Emerging Markets Growth and Financial Performance
This dissertation seeks to better understand the underlying factors driving financial performance and economic activity in international markets. The first chapter "Predictability of Growth in Emerging Markets: Information in Financial Aggregates" tests for predictability of output growth in a panel of twenty-two emerging market economies. I use pooled panel data methods that control for endogeneity and persistence in the predictor variables to test the predictive power of a large set of financial aggregates including valuation measures, interest rates, and capital flows. I find empirical evidence that stock returns, portfolio investment flows, the term spread and default spreads help predic...
Interest Rates Expectations and Flow Dynamics in High Yield Corporate Debt Mutual Funds
Fixed-income mutual funds saw massive outflows during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, with funds investing primarily in high yield debt markets experiencing the largest redemptions, as a percentage of assets. In March 2020 alone, high yield bond (HYB) and bank loan (BL) mutual fund withdrawals reached an estimated 4.1 and 13.6 percent of assets under management (AUM), accounting for close to $10.4 and $11.4 billion, respectively. Following interventions from the Federal Reserve that helped restore credit market conditions and brought U.S. interest rates back to new lows, flow dynamics of HYB and BL funds began to diverge substantially.
Mutual Fund Return Predictability in Partially Segmented Markets
This paper studies the predictability of European equity mutual fund performance during a period when European stock markets were partially segmented. Speci fically, we use macroeconomic variables to predict the performance of European equity funds, including Pan-European, country, and sector funds. We find that macro-variables are useful in locating funds with future outperformance, and that country-specifi c mutual funds provide the best opportunities for fund rotation strategies using macroeconomic information. Speci fically, our baseline long-only strategies provide four-factor alphas of 10-12%/year over the 1993-2008 period. Our study provides new evidence on the bene fits of local asset managers in segmented markets, as well as how macroeconomic information can be used to locate and exploit these bene fits.
