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NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021
The NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021 presents research-central issues in contemporary macroeconomics. Robert Hall and Marianna Kudlyak examine unemployment dynamics during economic recoveries. They present new empirical findings and explore models in which the labor market gradually draws down the stock of unemployed workers in the aftermath of a downturn. Titan Alon, Sena Coskun, Matthias Doepke, David Koll, and Michèle Tertilt analyze the relative decline in employment of women during the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated global recession. They show that increased childcare needs, which fell more heavily on women, and differences in occupations both contributed. In the case of the US, h...
The Rise And Fall Of Global Austerity
Since its onset in late 2007, few expected the Great Recession to be protracted for over half a decade across the world. The Rise and Fall of Global Austerity explains the origins and history of austerity, severe implications of the idea of it and how the continuation of the Great Recession was a by-product of austerity measures. Covering austerity policies that are in place in the United States, Europe, and other countries, E Ray Canterbery explains why austerity is detrimental for economies, economic policy and the general health of populations around the world. He highlights the connection between public debt and austerity policies and shows how the austerity lobby works in the United States to achieve its goals. Besides presenting a critique of the rationale for austerity, Canterbery also recommends monetary, fiscal, and incomes policy remedies, and stresses why economic growth and full employment are more ideal and pragmatic antidotes to the Great Recession.
United States
This Selected Issues paper on the United States of America examines the recent US labor force penetration rate (LFPR) dynamics. LFPR dynamics can be driven by structural factors and cyclical ones related to job prospects. With participation rates for older workers lower than for prime age workers, demographic models suggest that aging of the baby boom generation explains about 50 percent of the near 3p.p. LFPR decline during 2007–2013. State-level panel regression analysis is used to tie down the cyclical effect, which is estimated to account for about 30–40 percent of the decline. Significant remaining slack in the labor market points to an important role for macroeconomic and labor supply policies. This suggests a still important role for stimulative macroeconomic policies to help reach full employment. Macroeconomic policy should remain accommodative for a while given sizeable labor market slack. This slack goes beyond that signaled by the unemployment rate and takes account of the LFPR being below trend and many employees working part time ‘involuntarily’.
Free Trade Under Fire
An updated look at global trade and why it remains as controversial as ever Free trade is always under attack, more than ever in recent years. The imposition of numerous U.S. tariffs in 2018, and the retaliation those tariffs have drawn, has thrust trade issues to the top of the policy agenda. Critics contend that free trade brings economic pain, including plant closings and worker layoffs, and that trade agreements serve corporate interests, undercut domestic environmental regulations, and erode national sovereignty. Why are global trade and agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership so controversial? Does free trade deserve its bad reputation? In Free Trade under Fire, Douglas Irwin sweeps aside the misconceptions that run rampant in the debate over trade and gives readers a clear understanding of the issues involved. In its fifth edition, the book has been updated to address the sweeping new policy developments under the Trump administration and the latest research on the impact of trade.
Inattentiveness and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy
How does rational inattention interact with financial frictions? I provide new empirical evidence from survey data suggesting that this interaction likely plays a critical role in understanding macroeconomic dynamics. In a simple model, I demonstrate that financially constrained firms tend to be more attentive to economic conditions, consistent with my empirical findings. Embedding this mechanism into a DSGE model, I show that the aggregate investment response to a monetary policy shock depends on this interaction. The model further predicts that credit-constrained firms reduce their investment after an expansionary shock due to tighter borrowing constraints and higher production costs, a prediction I empirically confirm.
Robbing Peter to Pay Paul
Concentrated market power and the weakened sway of corporate stakeholders over management have emerged as leading concerns of American political economy. Samuel Milner provides a historical context for contemporary efforts to resolve these anxieties by examining the contest to control the distribution of corporate income during the mid‑twentieth century. During this “Golden Age of American Capitalism,” apprehension about the debilitating consequences of industrial concentration fueled efforts to ensure that management would share the fruits of progress with workers, consumers, and society as a whole. Focusing on wage and price determination in steel, automobiles, and electrical equipment, Milner reveals how the management of concentrated industries understood its ability to distribute income to its stakeholders as well as why economists, courts, and public policymakers struggled to curtail the exercise of that market power at its source.
Immigration and Population
Immigration is the primary cause of population change in developed countries and a major component of population change in many developing countries. This clear and perceptive text discusses how immigration impacts population size, composition, and distribution. The authors address major socio-political issues of immigration through the lens of demography, bringing demographic insights to bear on a number of pressing questions currently discussed in the media, such as: Does immigration stimulate the economy? Do immigrants put an excessive strain on health care systems? How does the racial and ethnic composition of immigrants challenge what it means to be American (or French or German)? By systematically exploring demographic topics such as fertility, health, education, and age and sex structures, the book provides students of immigration with a broader understanding of the impact of immigration on populations and offers new ways to think about immigration and society.
Fere Ex Nihilo - Ovarian Oncogenesis Recapitulates Phylogenesis: A Hormonal Approach To Ovarian Cancer Mirroring The Development Of The Mullerian Tract
The mortality of ovarian cancer has not changed in the last 30 years. Approximately 70% of the patients die of disease. The reason for this high mortality, in spite of all the new developments in medicine, is that we do not understand the disease, and therefore we approach ovarian cancer like most epithelial neoplasms. In this book Elvio G. Silva demonstrates that ovarian cancer is a hormone-related neoplasm, and the dissemination of the tumor in the peritoneum, in most cases, represents multicentric disease. In addition to the traditional cancer therapies it is necessary to correct the abnormal hormones to improve the prognosis, and probably to prevent this dreadful disease. Emphasis is also placed on understanding embryology as a necessary step to comprehend ovarian cancer. Fere Ex Nihilo presents a refreshingly new approach to tackle an age-old enemy.
