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The EU and Belarus After the Election
Far from representing a show of strength, the brutal post-election crackdown in Belarus was a sign of the Lukashenka regime's internal weakness. The EU must seize this opportunity to isolate the President while working with Belarusian society to help the country move beyond authoritarianism. It must also take advantage of Russia's growing frustration with its ally to begin a direct conversation with Moscow about Minsk--something that Lukashenka fears. With EU foreign ministers due to meet next Monday (31st January) to decide on imposing sanctions on Belarus, the European Council on Foreign Relations and FRIDE today publish The EU and Belarus after the election. This policy memo argues that w...
The State of Implementation of the Associations and Free Trade Agreements with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova with a Particular Focus on Ukraine and Systemic Analysis of Key Sectors
Signing and ratifying Association Agreements with Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine has proven to be an impressive affirmation of Brussels' soft power. The EU's overtures have persuaded elites and mobilised societies despite the fact that the Agreements come neither with a membership promise nor with the kind of financial assistance that has been given to the EU’s new member states. EU assistance has been effective in restoring macro-financial stability in all three countries. While costs of compliance with the DCFTA were calculated, level of investment associated with the necessary modernisation to make these economies competitive were neglected. The discrepancy between costs and benefits should prompt the EU to be more flexible. Brussels’ achievements remain fragile. Informal interests continue to play important roles in these countries and have the potential to thwart reforms. In the absence of strong, de-politicised institutions, the EU should work to support political consolidation - the alternative is further polarisation and political fragility - while at the same time insisting on adherence to democratic standards and strengthened institutional checks and balances.
Reassessing Lukashenka
What are the factors of Lukashenka's longevity at the helm of power? This question is addressed in the context of Belarusian history and identity, not as an outcome of a form of government deceitfully imposed on an allegedly benighted people whom better positioned and informed outsiders seek to enlighten and liberate.
Democracy Promotion in the EU's Neighbourhood
EU external democracy promotion has traditionally been based on ‘linkage’, i.e. bottom-up support for democratic forces in third countries, and ‘leverage’, i.e. the top-down inducement of political elites towards democratic reforms through political conditionality. The advent of the European Neighbourhood Policy and new forms of association have introduced a new, third model of democracy promotion which rests in functional cooperation between administrations. This volume comparatively defines and assesses these three models of external democracy promotion in the EU’s relations with its eastern and southern neighbours. It argues that while ‘linkage’ has hitherto failed to produc...
Geopolitical Rivalries in the “Common Neighborhood”
This timely book analyses ‘soft power’ in the light of neoclassical realist premises as part of the foreign policy toolkit of great powers to expand their sphere of influence. Vasif Huseynov argues that if nuclear armed great powers compete against the same type of powers to expand or sustain their sphere of influence over a populated region, they use soft power as a major expansive instrument while military power remains a tool to defend themselves and back up their foreign policies. Presenting his model of soft power, the author explores the role of soft power projection by great powers in the formation of the external alignment of regional states. He focuses on the rivalries between Russia and the West (i.e. the EU and the USA) over the states located between the EU and Russia (the region known as the “common [or shared] neighborhood”) and on two of these regional states (Ukraine and Belarus) to test his hypotheses.
Georgian Lessons
Russia's invasion, occupation, and partition of Georgia in August 2008 initially sent shock waves throughout Europe and NATO and appeared to signal a new confrontational phase in Moscow s relations with the West. This volume places the conflict in the context of Russia's broader objectives, its internal weaknesses, the limitations of EU and NATO policies, and America s security priorities. First, the Georgian conflict underscored Moscow's determination to reclaim an extensive zone of dominance corresponding with the former Soviet territories. Second, it displayed a shrewd calculation by the Kremlin about the fractured and ineffective Western response, and Moscow continues to test the Obama a...
Moldova
Moldova: Arena of International Influences brings international perspective to Moldova’s foreign relations since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Eighteen chapters analyze the policy toward Moldova of selected international actors: Belarus, Bulgaria, China, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, the European Union, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the unrecognized breakaway state of Transnistria. For these international actors, Moldova functions as an arena of influences—a sphere of intersecting interests, activities and, occasionally, competition. For the first time, leading experts and practitioners from many of the countries engaged in Moldova are brought together in a common language. The result is a detailed map of the international political landscape in Moldova, a chronicle of the past two decades, and a forecast of the country’s future.
Three Revolutions: Mobilization and Change in Contemporary Ukraine II
The second part of this multi-volume project assembles a series of recollections and debates on the Ukrainian revolutions of 1990, 2004, and 2013–2014. After an introduction to the methodology of oral history, it presents twenty interviews with participants and eyewitnesses of the events in Ukraine, and documents a series of workshop discussions conducted at a symposium held in 2017. In these workshops, activists and observers of each of the three revolutions exchanged and compared their memories, analyses, and evaluations. This volume thus not only provides a comprehensive collection of firsthand accounts of the three historic Ukrainian upheavals, but also reveals the interrelations between them. The volume documents assessments from Barbara Krauz-Mozer, Markiyan Ivashchyshyn, Natalia Klymovska, Vakhtang Kipiani, Mykola Kniazhycki, Natalyia Zubar, Yulia Tymoshenko, Aleksander Kwaœniewski, Viktor Taran, Markiyan Matsekh, Yulia Tychkivska, Leonid Findberg, Yulia Mostova, Oksana Zabuzhko, Eduard Drach, Michailo Cherenkoff, Andriy Dudchenko, Oleg Mahdych, Rebecca Harms, Herman van Rumpoy, and Jacek Saryusz-Wolski.
Security, Development And Sustainability In Asia: A World Scientific Reference On Major Policy And Development Issues Of 21st Century Asia (In 3 Volumes)
In the third decade of the 21st century, Asia remains the global center of economics, politics and security. Asia is at the forefront of wealth creation, innovation, and sustainability. There is a growing demand for knowing more about Asia. This Major Reference Set (MRS) is designed to help general readers as well as specialists to have a good grasp of the latest developments in Asia in the key areas of geopolitics, geoeconomics, and sustainability.With 3 volumes, this MRS covers all major dimensions of Asia's political economy, regional security, and sustainable development. Volume 1 unpacks and examines geopolitics and foreign policy strategies of key Asian states in response to major secu...
