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IMF Working Papers
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The Determinants of Stock Market Development in Emerging Economies
This paper examines the institutional and macroeconomic determinants of stock market development using a panel data of 42 emerging economies for the period 1990 to 2004. The paper finds that macroeconomic factors such as income level, gross domestic investment, banking sector development, private capital flows, and stock market liquidity are important determinants of stock market development in emerging market countries. The results also show that political risk, law and order, and bureaucratic quality are important determinants of stock market development because they enhance the viability of external finance. This result suggests that the resolution of political risk can be an important factor in the development of emerging stock markets. The analysis also shows the factors identified above as determining stock market development in emerging economies can also explain the development of the stock market in South Africa.
The Stock Market and the Financing of Corporate Growth in Africa
This paper examines the corporate financing pattern in Ghana. In particular, it investigates whether Singh's theoretically anomalous findings that developing country firms make considerably more use of external finance and new equity issues than developed country firms to finance asset growth hold in the case of Ghana. Replicating Singh's methodology, our results show that compared with corporations in advanced countries, the average listed Ghanaian firm finances its growth of total assets mainly from short-term debt. The stock market, however, is the most important source of long-term finance for listed Ghanaian firms. Overall, the evidence in this paper suggests that the stock market is a surprisingly important source of finance for funding corporate growth and that stock market development in Ghana has been important.
Understanding the Growth of African Financial Markets
This paper examines empirically the determinants of financial market development in Africa with an emphasis on banking systems and stock markets. The results show that income level, creditor rights protection, financial repression, and political risk are the main determinants of banking sector development in Africa, and that stock market liquidity, domestic savings, banking sector development, and political risk are the main determinants of stock market development. We also find that liberalizing the capital account promotes financial market development only in countries with high incomes, well- developed institutions, or both. The powerful impacts of political risk on both banking sector and stock market development suggest that resolution of political risk may be important to the development of African financial markets.
IMF Working Papers
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Fiscal Policy
Fiscal policy is an important factor influencing the growth performance of countries. However, compared to the large empirical literature on the effects of monetary policy on economic activity, fiscal policy has received less attention. In this book, the authors present current research in the study of fiscal policy and the macroeconomy as well as the challenges of fiscal policy in the current global environment. The book brings a global perspective to the practice of fiscal policy by presenting case studies from the United States, the European Union, and the Caribbean. Topics discussed in the book include international dimensions of fiscal policy, public debt and the economy, austerity versus stimulus and economic growth, the correction of economic imbalances in Europe, the long term impact of fiscal devaluation, the cyclicality of fiscal policy, the appropriate debt ceilings for small states, lessons from the banking union framework in the Euro Area, fiscal policy and competitiveness, policy lessons from debt restructuring in Jamaica, estimating the structural fiscal balance in small islands and fiscal policy rules and fiscal performance.
IMF Working Papers
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Fiscal Policy and the Current Account
This paper examines the empirical link between fiscal policy and the current account focusing on microstates defined as countries with a population of less than 2 million between 1970 and 2009. The paper employs panel regression and panel vector autoregression (VAR) on 155 countries of which 42 are microstates. Panel regression results show that a percentage point improvement in the fiscal balance improves the current account balance by 0.4 percentage points of GDP. The real effective exchange rate has no significant impact on the current account in microstates but the coefficient is significant in the global sample. Panel VAR results show that an increase in government consumption results in real exchange appreciation but the effect on the current account after an initial deterioration dies out quicker in microstates than in the global sample. The result implies that fiscal policy has little effect on the current account in microstates beyond its direct impact on imports. Overall, the results suggest that the weak relative price effects make the effect of fiscal adjustment on the current account much more difficult in microstates.
Stock Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa
This paper examines the economic importance of stock markets in Africa. It discusses policy options for promoting the development of the stock market in Africa. The results of the paper show that the stock markets have contributed to the financing of the growth of large corporations in certain African countries. An econometric investigation of the impact of stock markets on growth in selected African countries, however, finds inconclusive evidence even though stock market value traded seem to be positively and significantly associated with growth. African stock exchanges now face the challenge of integration and need better technical and institutional development to address the problem of low liquidity. Preconditions for successful regional approaches include the harmonization of legislations such as bankruptcy and accounting laws and a liberalized trade regime. Robust electronic trading systems and central depository systems will be important. Further domestic financial liberalization such as steps to improve the legal and accounting framework, private sector credit evaluation capabilities, and public sector regulatory oversight would also be beneficial.
The Challenges of Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Reduction in the Caribbean
This paper examines debt dynamics in the Caribbean and discusses policy options for reducing the high debt levels. Based on empirical studies of factors underlying global large debt reduction episodes, important policy lessons are drawn for the Caribbean. The analysis shows that major debt reductions are associated with strong growth and decisive and lasting fiscal consolidation efforts. Since growth in the current environment is virtually nonexistent, significant fiscal consolidation is inevitable in the region. Better control of the public wage bill, increasing public sector efficiency and tackling transfers are the obvious targets to reduce spending. On the revenue side, there is ample room to reduce tax expenditures, eliminate distortions while broadening the tax base. Fiscal consolidation needs to be complemented by a comprehensive debt reduction strategy including tax policy reforms and structural reforms to boost competiveness.
