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This text strives to make macroeconomics come alive for today's students planning to major in business or economics. The content reflects the news-stream from financial markets, Fed monetary policy, and budget debates. Key concepts are stressed and reinforced as the story of unfolds: the real vs. nominal distinction, the role of the interest rate in linking the real economy to the financial sector, how that linkage allows monetary policy to operate, and the role of the trade deficit. The fourth edition expands the chapter on financial intermediaries and markets - one that is popular with students, introduces indexed bonds into the discussion of interest rates, adds charts putting the recent bull market in historical context, and the chapter on the federal budget is completely revamped to reflect the emergence of a surplus. Additional exercises help reinforce concepts. Teaching resources may be found at http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/cnelson/INSTRUCTOR.html
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Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data. The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
Few people really understand the economic numbers they read and hear about every day, and this new book explains how to analyze, interpret, and use numbers, rates, indicators, and indexes to their advantage.
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