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How Much Has Labour Taxation Contributed to European Structural Unemployment?
Recoge: 1. Introduction - 2. Labour taxes in standard labour market models - 3. The econometric model specification - 4. Empirical results - 5. Conclusion.
Defensive Expectations
This book explains why inflation remains subdued after recessions, based on three revolutionary concepts: defensive expectations, compensatory savings, and cumulative wage gap. When income falls, consumption falls, and savings rise, as people rebuild their past wealth. Households will not spend more until they fully recover what they lost. The revised Phillips Curve explains that current inflation depends on the cumulative difference between current income and past income. This new theory is tested and validated by data for US since 1960 to date and for 35 OECD countries from 1990 to date. A number of policy implications are derived from these results. The book calls for an optimal policy mix between monetary policy and fiscal policy; it also discusses the coronavirus crisis as an extreme case of defensive expectations.
The Slice Sampler and Centrally Symmetric Distributions
We point out that the simple slice sampler generates chains that are correlation-free when the target distribution is centrally symmetric. This property explains several results in the literature about the relative performance of the simple and product slice samplers. We exploit it to improve two algorithms often used to circumvent the slice inversion problem, namely stepping out and multivariate sampling with hyperrectangles. In the general asymmetric case, we argue that symmetrizing the target distribution before simulating greatly enhances the efficiency of the simple slice sampler. To achieve symmetry we focus on the Box-Cox transformation with parameters chosen to minimize a measure of skewness. This strategy is illustrated with several sampling problems.
