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Short Interest and Aggregate Stock Returns
We show that short interest is arguably the strongest known predictor of aggregate stock returns. It outperforms a host of popular return predictors both in and out of sample, with annual r-squared statistics of 12.89% and 13.24%, respectively. In addition, short interest can generate utility gains of over 300 basis points per annum for a mean-variance investor. A vector autoregression decomposition shows that the economic source of short interest's predictive power stems predominantly from a cash flow channel. Overall, our evidence indicates that short sellers are informed traders who are able to anticipate future aggregate cash flows and associated market returns.The appendices for this paper are available at the following URL: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2675298" http://ssrn.com/abstract=2675298.
Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty
Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.
Handbook of Economic Forecasting
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range...
Research Foundation Review 2019
Research Foundation Review 2019 presents the offerings from CFA Institute Research Foundation during 2019. We start with an overview, summarize the year's output, and end with other relevant material, such as awards and recognition.
Research Foundation Review 2016
The Research Foundation Review 2016 summarizes the offerings from the CFA Institute Research Foundation over the past year—monographs, literature reviews, workshop presentations, and other relevant material.
Investment Governance for Fiduciaries
Governance is a word that is increasingly heard and read in modern times, be it corporate governance, global governance, or investment governance. Investment governance, the central concern of this modest volume, refers to the effective employment of resources—people, policies, processes, and systems—by an individual or governing body (the fiduciary or agent) seeking to fulfil their fiduciary duty to a principal (or beneficiary) in addressing an underlying investment challenge. Effective investment governance is an enabler of good stewardship, and for this reason it should, in our view, be of interest to all fiduciaries, no matter the size of the pool of assets or the nature of the benef...
How Financial Conditions Matter Differently across Latin America
This paper develops comparable financial conditions indices (FCIs) for the six large and most financially-integrated Latin American economies (LA6) by following Korobilis (2013) and Koop and Korobilis (2014). The main findings are as follows. First, the estimated FCIs are influenced by a commodity cycle, a global financial cycle, as well as country-specific episodes of financial distress. Second, by early 2017, financial conditions remained favorable in most LA6 economies relative to historical standards. Third, the impact of financial shocks on economic activity widely varies across LA6 and is otherwise found to be stronger in periods of financial stress. Fourth, exposure to regional financial spillovers also differs across LA6.
Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction
While a host of economic variables have been identified in the literature with the apparent in-sample ability to predict the equity premium, Goyal and Welch (2008) find that these variables fail to deliver consistent out-of-sample forecasting gains relative to the historical average. Arguing that substantial model uncertainty and instability seriously impair the forecasting ability of individual predictive regression models, we recommend combining individual model forecasts to improve out-of-sample equity premium prediction. Combining delivers statistically and economically significant out-of-sample gains relative to the historical average on a consistent basis over time. We provide two empirical explanations for the benefits of the forecast combination approach: (i) combining forecasts incorporates information from numerous economic variables while substantially reducing forecast volatility; (ii) combination forecasts of the equity premium are linked to the real economy.
DIY Financial Advisor
DIY Financial Advisor: A Simple Solution to Build and Protect Your Wealth DIY Financial Advisor is a synopsis of our research findings developed while serving as a consultant and asset manager for family offices. By way of background, a family office is a company, or group of people, who manage the wealth a family has gained over generations. The term 'family office' has an element of cachet, and even mystique, because it is usually associated with the mega-wealthy. However, practically speaking, virtually any family that manages its investments—independent of the size of the investment pool—could be considered a family office. The difference is mainly semantic. DIY Financial Advisor out...
