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How We Missed the Inflation Surge: An Anatomy of Post-2020 Inflation Forecast Errors
This paper analyzes the inflation forecast errors over the period 2021Q1-2022Q3 using forecasts of core and headline inflation from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook for a large group of advanced and emerging market economies. The findings reveal evidence of forecast bias that worsened initially then subsided towards the end of the sample. There is also evidence of forecast oversmoothing indicating rigidity in forecast revision in the face of incoming information. Focusing on core inflation forecast errors in 2021, four factors provide a potential ex post explanation: a stronger-than-anticipated demand recovery; demand-induced pressures on supply chains; the demand shift from services to goods at the onset of the pandemic; and labor market tightness. Ex ante, we find that the size of the COVID-19 fiscal stimulus packages announced by different governments in 2020 correlates positively with core inflation forecast errors in advanced economies. This result hints at potential forecast inefficiency, but we caution that it hinges on the outcomes of a few, albeit large, economies.
What Drives Prices in Egypt?
Since 2004, economic reforms in Egypt have led to robust expansion, a healthy external position, and enhanced investor confidence. But despite these positive macroeconomic developments, inflation has been steadily rising. Does fiscal policy threaten price stability? Does wage growth in the Egyptian economy lead price inflation, or is it the reverse? In this volume, these and other questions are examined by contributors who participated in a conference held in Cairo in late 2007. Here is a coherent and comprehensive analysis of the factors driving prices in Egypt, in an attempt to find a satisfactory balance between prices and economic growth. While Egypt is the focus of the analysis, the papers draw upon the relevant literature, and international experience, the findings can be applied to other middle-income economies. This timely study helps to explain the complex issues facing economists and policymakers, with proposals for reform. Contributors: Hala Abou-Ali, Hala Fares, Omneia A. Helmy, Alaa Ibrahim, Hanaa Kheir-El-Din, Rania Al-Mashat, Diaa Noureldin, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, and Sherine Al-Shawarby.
What Drives Prices in Egypt?
Since 2004, economic reforms in Egypt have led to robust expansion, a healthy external position, and enhanced investor confidence. But despite these positive macroeconomic developments, inflation has been steadily rising. Does fiscal policy threaten price stability? Does wage growth in the Egyptian economy lead price inflation, or is it the reverse? In this volume, these and other questions are examined by contributors who participated in a conference held in Cairo in late 2007. Here is a coherent and comprehensive analysis of the factors driving prices in Egypt, in an attempt to find a satisfactory balance between prices and economic growth. While Egypt is the focus of the analysis, the papers draw upon the relevant literature, and international experience, the findings can be applied to other middle-income economies. This timely study helps to explain the complex issues facing economists and policymakers, with proposals for reform. Contributors: Hala Abou-Ali, Hala Fares, Omneia A. Helmy, Alaa Ibrahim, Hanaa Kheir-El-Din, Rania Al-Mashat, Diaa Noureldin, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, and Sherine Al-Shawarby.
COVID-19 and global food security
The coronavirus pandemic has sparked not only a health crisis but also an economic crisis, which together pose a serious threat to food security, particularly in poorer countries. COVID-19 & Global Food Security brings together a groundbreaking series of IFPRI blog posts looking at the impacts of COVID-19 and the policy responses. IFPRI researchers and guest bloggers provide key insights and analysis on how the global pandemic is affecting global poverty and food security and nutrition, food trade and supply chains, gender, employment, and a variety of policy interventions, as well as reflections on how we can use these lessons to better prepare for future pandemics. These pieces draw on a combination of conceptual arguments, global and country-level simulation models, in-country surveys, case studies, and expert opinions. Together, they present a comprehensive picture of the current and potential impact of COVID-19 and the world’s policy responses on global food and nutrition security.
Impact of COVID-19 on the Egyptian economy: Economic sectors, jobs, and households
The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a 1.1 percent decline in Egypt’s GDP during the 4th quarter (April to June) of the 2019/20 fiscal year, compared to the same quarter in 2018/19. Without the Government of Egypt’s COVID-19 emergency response package, GDP in Q4 may have declined by 8.7 percent. Tak-ing the emergency response pack-age into account, we estimate an annual growth rate of 3.8 percent for FY 2019/20. Without the emer-gency response package, annual growth for FY 2019/20 may have been as low as 1.9 percent. The services sector is hit hardest, falling by 10.9 percent, followed by industry at -8.3 percent. Agriculture is the most resilient sector. However, these losses are lower than ...
World Economic Outlook, April 2024
The latest World Economic Outlook reports economic activity was surprisingly resilient through the global disinflation of 2022–23, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability. Risks to the global outlook are now broadly balanced compared with last year. Monetary policy should ensure that inflation touches down smoothly, while a renewed focus on fiscal consolidation is needed to rebuild room for budgetary maneuver and to ensure debt sustainability. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.
The Palgrave Companion to Oxford Economics
The University of Oxford has been and continues to be one of the most important global centres for economics. With six chapters on themes in Oxford economics and 24 chapters on the lives and work of Oxford economists, this volume shows how economics became established at the University, how it produced some of the world’s best-known economists, including Francis Ysidro Edgeworth, Roy Harrod and David Hendry, and how it remains a global force for the very best in teaching and research in economics. With original contributions from a stellar cast, this volume provides economists – especially those interested in macroeconomics and the history of economic thought – with the first in-depth analysis of Oxford economics.
Econometric Methods And Their Applications In Finance, Macro And Related Fields
The volume aims at providing an outlet for some of the best papers presented at the 15th Annual Conference of the African Econometric Society, which is one of the “chapters” of the International Econometric Society. Many of these papers represent the state of the art in financial econometrics and applied econometric modeling, and some also provide useful simulations that shed light on the models' ability to generate meaningful scenarios for forecasting and policy analysis.
