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Monetary Policy Transmission Below Zero
This study considers the pass-through of different ECB monetary policy measures to bank corporate lending rates of different maturities during 2010-2020. We find changes in the pass-through as policy rates first dip below zero in 2014 and again when negative interest rates become more persistent during the "low-for-long" period beginning in 2016. Overall, the transmission of monetary policy to bank lending rates appears to have become less efficient below zero, particularly in the case of corporate loans with short maturities. The effect is most pronounced for banks that did not lower their own retail deposit rates below zero or held significant amounts of negative interest-bearing central b...
Does Experience of Banking Crises Affect Trust in Banks?
This paper investigates how past experience with banking crises influences an individual's trust in banks. We combine data on banking crises for the period 1970-2014 with individual data on trust in banks for 52 countries. We find that experiencing a banking crisis diminishes a person's trust in banks, and that high exposure to banking crises is negatively related to trust in banks. An individ-ual's age at the time of the crisis is important, and significant for individuals between 41 and 60 years of age at the time of the banking crisis. Both severe and mild crises diminish trust in banks, but a severe banking crisis hits also young people's trust, while less severe banking crises mainly degrade trust of more mature people. The detrimental effect for trust in banks seems to be connected specifically to systemic banking crises. Other types of financial crises incur a less significant effect. Overall, our results indicate that banking crises generate previously unrecognized costs for the econ-omy in the form of a lasting reduction of trust in banks.
Assessing the Dependency of Finland and the EU on Chinese Imports
This policy brief provides an overview of Finland's dependency on imports from China in both a national and EU context. As trade figures based on value added only provide a rough notion of China's contribution to final consumption, we also consider import dependence from the goods imports figures of Finnish Customs to assess import dependence directly for specific product groups. As many products of Chinese origin are imported as semifinished goods or components for products finished in another EU country, we break down also the import dependency of the EU on China by specific product groups. We then compare Finland's domestic production of select industrial product groups against comparable imports from China. We analyze Finland's dependence on China for critical raw materials and identify potential alternative sources for key product groups for which Finland and the EU are currently dependent on China.
Financial Cooperatives and Local Development
This book examines the opportunities opened up for financial cooperatives by the recent financial crisis, and explores the role of these institutions in promoting and sustaining local development. The global financial crisis has not only shown the limits of the mainstream theory of markets and rational expectations, but has also generated a great deal of disillusionment with the banking system and underlined the importance of a healthy society for the welfare of the individual. Consequently, new and innovative ways of providing finance are needed, especially for strengthening the development of local societies.
The Evolution of China’s Political Economy
For years, China’s rapid economic transformation was hailed as a successful project that lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. However, in recent times, the Chinese narrative has taken a more negative turn in the eyes of the West. Much of this has to do with the US perception about the role of the Chinese state in its economy and its military build-up, especially in the South China Sea. There’s no question, China’s complex economy can be difficult to understand. Information is often unclear and incomplete, and its data are not always reliable. However, this book presents the reader with a clear picture of China’s economy and how it compares to other advanced economies...
In Search of Fluctuations
China's official real GDP growth has held surprisingly stable in recent years. As national GDP figures influence both policy analysis and political decisions, the GDP growth rate of the massive Chinese economy has also great international implications. Taking the nominal GDP growth and price index data as given and experimenting with alternative deflators, this paper attempts to track missing fluctuations in real GDP growth in recent years. Based on the constructed growth series, real GDP growth decreased during 2015-2016 and picked up in 2017. Growth has been again decelerating this year. Furthermore, the constructed growth rate seems to be well below the recent official figures.
Do International Investment and Trade Flows Show Any Signs of Fragmentation?
This paper utilizes available aggregate country-level data, as well as bilateral trade and investment data, to identify signs of fragmentation in trade and investment patterns among ten major trading countries or regional trading blocks. We compare the trade and investment trends in the years during the US-China trade war and increase in geopolitical tensions (2018-2021) against the years preceding the trade war (2014-2017). Our analysis generally corroborates findings in the existing literature. Bilateral flows between the US and China have been damaged, but there is little evidence of wider fragmentation or that the world is splitting into competing spheres. Even focusing on technologyinte...
