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Price Setting Frequency and the Phillips Curve
We develop a New Keynesian (NK) model with endogenous price setting frequency. Whether a firm updates its price in a given period depends on an analysis of expected cost and benefits modelled by a discrete choice process. A firm decides to update the price when expected benefits outweigh expected cost and then resets the price optimally. As markups are countercyclical, the model predicts that prices are more flexible during expansions and less flexible during recessions. Our quantitative analysis shows that contrary to the standard NK model, the assumed price setting behaviour: is consistent with micro data on price setting frequency; gives rise to an accelerating Phillips curve that is steeper during expansions and flatter during recessions; explains shifts in the Phillips curve associated with different historical episodes without relying on implausible high cost-push shocks and nominal rigidities.
The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand- and Supply-driven Recessions
We estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are 2-3 times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non-zero with very high probability. More generally, multipliers are inversely correlated with the deviation of inflation from its trend, implying that the more demand-driven a recession, the higher the multiplier. Median multipliers range from -0.5 in supply-driven recessions to about 2 in demand-driven recessions. The econometric approach leverages a factor-augmented interacted vector-autoregression model purified of expectations (FAIPVAR-X). The model captures the time-varying state of the business-cycle including strongly and moderately demand- and supply-driven recessions, by taking the whole distribution of inflation deviations from trend into account.
Expectations in Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Die vorliegende kumulative Dissertation umfasst drei Essays, welche sich mit Fragestellungen der Geld- und Fiskalpolitik beschäftigen. Jeder Essay stellt ein Kapitel der Dissertation dar. Das erste Kapitel trägt den Titel "Heterogeneous Expectations and the Merit of Monetary Policy Inertia." Es untersucht die Fähigkeit einer Zentralbank, mittels populärer Zinsregeln Preisstabilität in einer Ökonomie sicherzustellen. Es handelt sich um eine Neu-Keynesianische Ökonomie mit heterogenen Erwartungen. Die Individuen formen ihre Erwartungen entweder rational oder adaptiv. Es stellt sich heraus das simple Zinsregeln die gleichen Stärken und Schwächen haben, wie in einer Ökonomie, in welche...
Endogenously (non-)Ricardian Beliefs
This paper develops a theory of endogenously (non-)Ricardian beliefs. That is, whether Ricardian Equivalence holds in an equilibrium depends on endogenous private sector beliefs. The novelty here is a restricted perceptions viewpoint: in complex forecasting environments, agents forecast aggregate variables with (potentially) misspecified models that are optimal within the restricted class, i.e., a restricted perceptions equilibrium (RPE). A misspecification equilibrium is a refinement of an RPE where the choice of restricted models is endogenous. Our formalization considers two predictors: in one rule Ricardian beliefs emerge as a self-confirming equilibrium, while the other features an equilibrium with non-Ricardian beliefs. We show that (1.) there can exist misspecification equilibria where beliefs are endogenously (non-)Ricardian, (2.) multiple equilibria exist where the economy can coordinate on Ricardian or non-Ricardian equilibria. The theory suggests a novel interpretation of post-war U.S. inflation data as being generated by endogenous belief-driven regime change and a nuanced trade-off for monetary policy rules.
Automation, Stagnation, and the Implications of a Robot Tax
We assess the long-run growth effects of automation in the overlapping generations framework. Although automation implies constant returns to capital and, thus, an AK production side of the economy, positive long-run growth does not emerge. The reason is that automation suppresses wage income, which is the only source of investment in the overlapping generations model. Our result stands in sharp contrast to the representative agent setting with automation, where sustained long-run growth is possible even without technological progress. Our analysis therefore provides a cautionary tale that the underlying modeling structure of saving/investment decisions matters for the derived economic impact of automation. In addition, we show that a robot tax has the potential to raise per capita output and welfare at the steady state. However, it cannot induce a takeoff toward positive long-run growth.
The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound
We estimate state-dependent government spending multipliers for the United States. We use a Factor-Augmented Interacted Vector Autoregression (FAIVAR) model. This allows us to capture the time-varying monetary policy characteristics including the recent zero interest rate lower bound (ZLB) state, to account for the state of the business cycle, and to address the limited information problem typically inherent in VARs. We identify government spending shocks by sign restrictions and use a government spending growth forecast series to account for the effects of anticipated fiscal policy. In our baseline specification, we find that government spending multipliers in a recession range from 3:56 to 3:79 at the ZLB. Away from the ZLB, multipliers in recessions range from 2:31 to 3:05. Several robustness analyses confirm that multipliers are higher, when the interest rate is lower and that multipliers in recessions exceed multipliers in expansions. Our results are consistent with theories that predict larger multipliers at the ZLB.
Fiscal Foresight, Limited Information and the Effects of Government Spending Shocks
We quantify the impact of government spending shocks in the US. Thereby, we control for fiscal foresight, a specific limited information problem (LIP) by utilizing the narrative approach. Moreover, we surmount the generic LIP inherent in vector autoregressions (VARs) by a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) approach. We find that a positive deficit-financed defence shock raises output by more than in a VAR (e.g. 2.61 vs. 2.04 for peak multipliers). Furthermore, our evidence suggests that consumption is crowded in. These results are robust to variants of controlling for fiscal foresight and reveal the crucial role of the LIP in fiscal VARs.
