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Russia's Military Interventions
Despite Russia’s relatively small global economic footprint, it has engaged in more interventions than any other U.S. competitor since the end of the Cold War. In this report, the authors assess when, where, and why Russia conducts military interventions by analyzing the 25 interventions that Russia has undertaken since 1991, including detailed case studies of the 2008 Russia-Georgia War and Moscow’s involvement in the ongoing Syrian civil war.
The Limits of Russian Manipulation
Using the concept of national identity as a starting point, RAND researchers developed a framework in an effort to illuminate the underlying causes of Russian manipulation, Ukrainian resistance, and the Russia-Ukraine war.
Truth Decay
Political and civil discourse in the United States is characterized by “Truth Decay,” defined as increasing disagreement about facts, a blurring of the line between opinion and fact, an increase in the relative volume of opinion compared with fact, and lowered trust in formerly respected sources of factual information. This report explores the causes and wide-ranging consequences of Truth Decay and proposes strategies for further action.
The War for Ukraine
The Russo-Ukraine War is a vital learning opportunity for military strategists across the globe. The first and clearest lesson to be gleaned from it is this: the soundness of a military’s strategy and the nimbleness with which it can adapt to unforeseen circumstances are the two most important factors in deciding victory or defeat. The War for Ukraine analyzes the war through these twin lenses of strategy and adaptation, detailing how each army has succeeded or failed to plan for and adapt to this twenty-first century war. Author Mick Ryan examines the foundations of Ukrainian and Russian strategy for their ongoing war, looking back over several decades to reveal how both sides have evolve...
Ground Combat
A challenge to common assumptions about the future of land warfare Ground Combat reveals the gritty details of land warfare at the tactical level and challenges today's overly subjective and often inaccurate approaches to characterizing war. Ben Connable's motivation for writing the book is to offer an evidence-based approach to examining the future of war. Connable created and analyzed an original dataset of more than four hundred global ground combat cases, showing that there was an evolutionary rather than revolutionary shift in the characteristics of ground combat from World War II through the early 2020s. Despite advances in military technology, tanks, artillery, and infantry remain central to how war is waged on land. This book asks readers to stop and think about the implications of these findings for force planning and future predictions about military-technical revolutions. This book sets an essential evidentiary baseline for military officers, policymakers, and scholars who think about the future of modern war.
Wars Without End
Despite their untold human suffering, widespread destruction and loss, and far-reaching destabilization, the fires of many of the world's most violent civil wars continue to burn. In light of their devastating effects, how can we explain the intractability of costly and stalemated, yet seemingly endless, civil wars? By situating internal conflicts within the broader geopolitical environment in which they take place, Wars Without End provides an answer. It highlights the critical role of competitive intervention--opposing, simultaneous transfers of military assistance from different third-party states to both government and rebel combatants--in the dynamics, duration, and global prevalence of...
Turbulence Across the Sea
Great Power competition is back. On the two sides of the Atlantic, however, this concept often means different things. While the United States is focused on China, Europe is preoccupied with Russia. Yet shifting American priorities toward Asia requires reconceptualizing the future role of NATO. In Europe, this shift has led to serious thought about how to achieve strategic autonomy that will allow Europe to guarantee its own security regardless of strategic choices made in Washington. As Chinese strategy focuses on dividing European actors and making them more economically dependent on Beijing, these developments may undermine Washington’s influence in Europe while limiting potential Europ...
Design Strategy
A new approach to addressing the contemporary world’s most difficult challenges, such as climate change and poverty. Conflicts over “the problem” and “the solution” plague the modern world and land problem solvers in what has been called “wicked problem territory”—a social space with high levels of conflict over problems and solutions. In Design Strategy, Nancy C. Roberts proposes design as a strategy of problem solving to close the gap between an existing state and a desired state. Utilizing this approach, designers and change agents are better able to minimize self-defeating conflicts over problems and solutions, break the logjam of opposition, and avoid the traps that lock...
The Impact of Political Uncertainty on Asset Prices: The Case of the United Kingdom's EU Membership Referendum
How did expectations of the outcome of the United Kingdom's (UK) referendum on European Union (EU) membership in 2016 affect prices in financial markets? We study this using high frequency data from betting and financial markets. We find that a one percentage point increase in the probability of "Leave" result caused British stocks (FTSE All-Share) to decline by 0.004 percent, and the Pound to depreciate by 0.006 percent against the euro. We find negative and significant effects for most sub-sectors, and negative spill-overs to other EU member countries. We show that the differential impact across sectors and countries can be explained by differences in the trade exposures.
