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Guinea
The IMF conducted a Financial Sector Stability Review of the Republic of Guinea in June 2019. The review shows that while the current economic situation is benign, the financial soundness indicators (FSIs) point to increasing vulnerabilities. The economic outlook is currently positive. Moreover, financial inclusion is growing rapidly as mobile money services are quickly adopted. However, the FSIs suggest growing vulnerabilities and possibly some idiosyncratic stress in the banking sector. As a result of data quality and availability issues, it is difficult to make a more in-depth assessment of financial stability and potential vulnerabilities. The financial sector structure is, to some exten...
Finding the Bad Apples in the Barrel: Using the Market Value of Equity to Signal Banking Sector Vulnerabilities
This paper measures the performance of different metrics in assessing banking system vulnerabilities. It finds that metrics based on equity market valuations of bank capital are better than regulatory capital ratios, and other metrics, in spotting banks that failed (bad apples). This paper proposes that these market-based ratios could be used as a surveillance tool to assess vulnerabilities in the banking sector. While the measures may provide a somewhat fuzzy signal, it is better to have a strategy for identifying bad apples, even if sometimes the apples turn out to be fine, than not being able to spot any bad apples before the barrel has been spoiled.
Climate Change Risk Management in Banks
Banks, like other businesses, endeavor to drive revenue and growth, while deftly managing the risks. Dubbed the next "frontier" in risk management for financial services, climate related risks are the newest and potentially the most challenging set of risks that banks are encountering. On the one hand, banks must show their commitment to becoming net zero and, on the other, help their customers transition to more sustainable operations, all this while managing climate-related financial risks. It is a paradigm shift from how the banking industry has traditionally managed risks as climate change risks are complex. They are multilayered, multidimensional with uncertain climate pathways that imp...
India’s Financial System
India has experienced a prolonged period of strong economic growth since it embarked on major structural reforms and economic liberalization in 1991, with real GDP growth averaging about 6.6 percent during 1991–2019. Millions have been lifted out of poverty. With a population of 1.4 billion and about 7 percent of the world economic output (in purchasing power parity terms), India is the third largest economy—after the US and China. As such, developments in India have significant global and regional implications, including via spillovers through international trade and global supply chains. At the same time, India’s economic development has not been linear and has been impacted by exter...
Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021
Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks. Chapter 1 warns that there is a pressing need to act to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities. The recovery is also expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies. Given large external financing needs, several emerging markets face challenges, especially if a persistent rise in US rates brings about a repricing of risk and tighter fi...
Innovative Federal Reserve Policies During The Great Financial Crisis
This book, Innovative Federal Policies During the Great Financial Crisis, contains discussions of unconventional monetary policies, policy changes to address systemic and payments systems risks, new macroprudential policies, the 'stretching' of the financial safety net, changes in the Fed's liquidity funding facility (the discount window), use of the Fed's balance sheet as a tool of monetary policy, and alternative means to deal with real-estate asset bubbles and potential financial instability.The 10 chapters in this book offer a unique analysis of several innovative approaches by the Federal Reserve that contributed to the stabilization of the US economy following the Great Recession. What...
Sustainable Water-Food Nexus
As we navigate an era defined by a pressing need for sustainable resource management, Circular Economy: Navigating the Water-Food Nexus for Sustainable Futures serves as a much-needed guide. The book dives deep into the intertwined relationship between food and water systems in the context of a circular economy, a model that aims for the elimination of waste and the continual use of resources. It starts by defining the landscape of the water-food nexus and the circular economy, painting a comprehensive picture of these two critical concepts and their symbiotic relationship. Further, it delves into the pillars of the water-food nexus, offering insights into sustainable agriculture practices, ...
United States
This Technical Note discusses key findings of stress testing on the United States under the Financial Sector Assessment Program. Several stress tests were used to quantify the potential impacts of risks and vulnerabilities in banking and non-banking sectors. The stress tests run by the authorities and by companies under the Dodd-Frank Act (DFA) suggest that most large bank holding companies (BHCs) are resilient to shocks similar to the last crisis. For BHCs, the IMF staff’s solvency stress tests over the initial stressed period are largely in line with the DFA stress testing results, and suggest that the system is generally robust, although some BHCs would fall below the hurdle rate in the stressed environment.
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Asia and Pacific
Fall 2021 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific--Navigating Waves of New Variants: Pandemic Resurgence Slows the Recovery
The Great Recession
Here, experts assess the role of central banks in responding to the recent financial crisis and in preventing future crises. The contributors focus on monetary policy, the new area of macroprudential policy, and issues of exchange rates, capital flows, and banking and financial markets.
