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Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations
We investigate whether the response of the macro-economy to oil price shocks undergoes episodic changes. Employing a regime-switching vector autoregressive model we identify two regimes that are characterized by qualitatively different patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks trigger only limited and short-lived adjustments in these variables. In the adverse regime, by contrast, oil price shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential driver of the dynamics characterising the adverse regime. The systematic response of monetary policy works against such second-round effects in the adverse regime but is insufficient to fully offset them. The model also delivers (conditional) probabilities for being (staying) in either regime, which may help interpret oil price fluctuations - and inform deliberations on the adequate policy response - in real-time.
Cost of Borrowing Shocks and Fiscal Adjustment
Do capital markets impose fiscal discipline on governments? We investigate the responses of fiscal variables to a change in the interest rate paid by governments on their debt in a panel of 14 European countries over four decades. To this end, we estimate a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model, using sign restrictions via the penalty function method of Mountford and Uhlig (2009) to identify structural cost of borrowing shocks. Our baseline estimation shows that a 1 percentage point rise in the cost of borrowing leads to a cumulative improvement of the primary balance-to-GDP ratio of approximately 2 percentage points over 10 years, with the fiscal response becoming significantly evident o...
Essays on Monetary Policy and Financial Markets
This thesis studies the interaction of monetary policy and financial markets. The thesis examines the impact of monetary policy shocks on the cross-section of bond prices (e.g., government and corporate bonds). It also analyzes how monetary policy interacts with the portfolios of financial intermediaries and households. In the first chapter, Heterogeneous Intermediaries and Bond Characteristics in the Transmission of Monetary Policy, together Federic Holm-Hadulla, we study the transmission of monetary policy to the corporate bond market. We show that corporate bond purchases by the central bank give rise to credit spread shocks, whereas government bond purchases mainly cause term spread shoc...
Monetary Policy in Times of Crisis
The first twenty years of the European Central Bank offer a unique insight into how a central bank can navigate macroeconomic insecurity and crisis. This volume examines the structures and decision-making processes behind the complex measures taken by the ECB to tackle some of the toughest economic challenges in the history of modern Europe.
Euroshock
The inside story of the unprecedented restructuring of Greece’s debt in 2012—the largest restructuring in history—and how the Eurozone was stabilized and Greece was saved from exit from the Euro and economic calamity. In the fall of 2009, the world economy was beginning to recover from the global financial crisis that had shaken global markets and had led to a sharp recession. At the same time, Europe was entering a new phase of economic stress. By the spring of 2011, the European economy had exploded into a full-blown crisis with Greece at the center. The euro, a currency just over a decade old, was under severe pressure and there was growing speculation about Greece leaving the Eurozone and thereby fracturing the common currency, leading potentially to an unraveling of the euro. Against this backdrop, urgent negotiations were launched to pull Greece and Europe back from the brink of disaster. This is the inside story of those negotiations.
The Value of Money
Thanks to the collaboration with renowned economists and policymakers, the publication compares Italian and German macro-economic cultures and performances. When the Bretton Woods system crumbled and currencies lost their direct link to the dollar and their indirect link to gold, these two countries embarked upon strongly different monetary policies. This divergence was reflected in the evolution of the exchange rates: the value of one D-Mark increased from 170 Italian lira under Bretton Woods to 990 Italian lira at the start of European Monetary Union: an astounding devaluation of about 85 per cent for the lira! Firstly, the volume describes the German and the Italian economic and, specific...
The Political Economy of Structural Reforms in Europe
Reforms in labour and product markets play a central role in government policies. The Political Economy of Structural Reforms in Europe takes stock of current frontier work. It brings together leading contributions from academia, the central banks in Europe, and the OECD to argue that structural reforms can make a fundamental contribution to improve economic performance across Europe. The Political Economy of Structural Reforms in Europe brings together theoretical and empirical studies that address the potential role of structural reforms in restoring macroeconomic stability, resuming economic growth, addressing income inequality, and grappling secular stagnation. It throws new light on the determinants and effects of structural reforms and on how these shape the European integration experience.
Pressure or Prudence? Tales of Market Pressure and Fiscal Adjustment
We study whether multiyear fiscal adjustment plans in 17 OECD countries during 1980-2011 have been associated with market pressure. We find that only a third (34 percent) of the consolidations occurred under market pressure, suggesting that market pressure is important but not the main element associated with consolidation plans. Many adjustments under market pressure were also clustered around external shocks, and entailed larger median fiscal adjustments than other multiyear consolidations. In contrast, we find that virtually all multiyear consolidations aimed at reducing budget deficits occurred with initially weak macro-fiscal fundamentals.
