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Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs
The recent global financial crisis illustrates that financial frictions are a significant source of volatility in the economy. This paper investigates monetary policy stabilization in an environment where financial frictions are a relevant source of macroeconomic fluctuation. We derive a measure of output gap that accounts for frictions in financial market. Furthermore we illustrate that, in the presence of financial frictions, a benevolent central bank faces a substantial trade-off between nominal and real stabilization; optimal monetary policy significantly reduces fluctuations in price and wage inflations but fails to alleviate the output gap volatility. This suggests a role for macroprudential policies.
The Decline of the Labor Share
We estimate a structural vector autoregressive model in order to quantify four main explanations for the decline of the US labor income share: (i) rising market power of firms, (ii) falling market power of workers, (iii) higher investmentspecific technology growth, and (iv) the widespread emergence of automation or robotization in production processes. Identification is achieved with theory robust sign restrictions imposed at medium-run horizons. The restrictions are derived from a stylized macroeconomic model of structural change. Across specifications we find that automation is the main driver of the long-run labor share. Firms' rising markups can, however, account for a significant part of the accelerating labor share decline observed in the last 20 years. Our results also point to complementarity between labor and capital, thus ruling out capital deepening as a major force behind declining labor shares. If anything, investment-specific technology growth has contributed to higher labor income shares in our sample.
