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From Shopping to Statistics
In this paper, we use high-frequency transaction data to develop a weekly tracker for private consumption expenditures. Furthermore, we apply the transaction data in a nowcasting experiment and compare their performance with other, readily available indicators that are regularly linked to private consumption in Germany. The weekly tracker produces precise estimates and can thus be used in real-time, especially in very turbulent times such as a pandemic or the high-inflation-phase in its aftermath. In terms of nowcast accuracy, the tracker outperforms all remaining indicators, making it a powerful tool for applied forecasting work. We plan to regularly publish the weekly consumption tracker in the future, thereby complementing the database for Germany.
ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2024: Neue Hoffnung, aber (noch) kein Sommermärchen
Inhalt: 1. Lage und Prognose der Weltwirtschaft 2. Lage und Prognose der deutschen Wirtschaft 3. Potenzialschätzung und Mittelfristprojektion 4. Zur Finanzpolitik in Deutschland.
ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2023
Inhalt: 1. Lage und Prognose der Weltwirtschaft 2. Lage und Prognose der deutschen Wirtschaft 3. Potenzialschätzung und Mittelfristprojektion 4. Zur Finanzpolitik in Deutschland.
ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2021
Inhalt: 1. Lage und Prognose der Weltwirtschaft 2. Lage und Prognose der deutschen Wirtschaft 3.Potenzialschätzung und Mittelfristprojektion 4. Zur Finanzpolitik in Deutschland.
Sonderausgabe Dezember: ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2021
Die anhaltenden Lieferengpässe und die vierte Coronawelle bremsen die deutsche Wirtschaft spürbar aus. Die zunächst erwartete kräftige Erholung für das Jahr 2022 verschiebt sich weiter nach hinten. Insgesamt dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in diesem Jahr um 2,5%, im kommenden Jahr um 3,7% und im Jahr 2023 um 2,9% zulegen. Die Inf lationsrate dürfte zunächst noch einmal zunehmen: von 3,1% in diesem Jahr auf 3,3% im kommenden Jahr. Dabei spielen steigende Kosten, die mit den Lieferengpässen einhergehen, und auch die verzögerte Anpassung an die gestiegenen Energie- und Rohstoffpreise eine treibende Rolle. Erst im Jahr 2023 sollte sich der Anstieg der Verbraucherpreise wieder normalisieren und auf 1,8% zurückgehen. Die Arbeitslosenquote fällt von voraussichtlich 5,7% 2021 auf durchschnittlich 5,2% im Jahr 2022 und 4,9% im Jahr 2023. Im laufenden Jahr wird das Defizit im Staatshaushalt bei voraussichtlich 162 Mrd. Euro liegen. Im weiteren Prognosezeitraum erholt sich der Staatshaushalt. In den Jahren 2022 und 2023 wird ein Defizit von gut 80 bzw. 20 Mrd. Euro erwartet.
Inequality of Opportunity
Eight papers, both theoretical and applied, on the concept of equality of opportunity which says that a society should guarantee its members equal access to advantage regardless of their circumstances, while holding them responsible for turning that access into actual advantage by the application of effort.
Highs and Lows of European Integration
In light of Europe’s prolonged state of crisis, this book reassesses the challenges and prospects of the European integration process. Scholars from diverse disciplines reflect on various types of integration by analyzing political, economic and sociological variables, while also taking legal and cultural constraints into account. Readers will learn about the dilemmas and challenges of the European transformation process as well as political reforms to overcome these challenges. The book is divided into four parts, the first of which discusses the external dimension of the European Union, including a review of development aid policies and EU foreign policy. In turn, the second part focuses on institutional change and asymmetrical integration in the EU. The third part is devoted to the rise of populism and nationalism, including an analysis of the role of civil society organizations in the Brexit. In closing, the last part highlights the crisis of the Euro as a symbol of European integration and the emerging social and economic divide between countries of the North and South.
Strategic Renewal
Strategic Renewal is an original research anthology offering insight into a subject area which, although critical for the sustained success of organizations, has received relatively little attention as distinct from the more general phenomenon of strategic change. Firstly, by providing a summary of the literature, this research anthology helps graduate students and new researchers grasp the current state of affairs in the field. Secondly, this research anthology will help update the knowledge base of the existing researchers in the field. By bringing together various studies, the research anthology determines the core concepts of the field and elucidates the key gaps and future research area...
Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap
The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions, looking into the role of institutions, demography, infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, output structure and trade structure. Two variants of Bayesian Model Averaging are used as robustness checks. The results—including some that indeed speak to the special status of middle-income countries—are then used to derive policy implications, with a particular focus on Asian economies.
