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Consumption Smoothing Or Consumption Binging? The Effects of Government-led Consumer Credit Expansion in Brazil
Brazil initiated a major credit expansion program through government banks in 2011. The program primarily targeted public sector workers, who had stable payroll, with offers of payroll-backed loans. Using individual-level administrative data on income, borrowing, and spending, we find that the program led to a large 15 percentage point rise in debt to initial income for public sector workers. We develop a new method for estimating expected income growth for workers, and show that a "consumption smoothing" motive cannot explain the rise in consumer borrowing. Instead, there is strong support for a "consumption binging" hypothesis: less financially sophisticated public sector workers borrowed more at high real interest rates of around 20%, and they ended up experiencing both higher consumption volatility and lower average consumption.
Household Debt and Recession in Brazil
Brazil experienced one of the most severe recessions in its history from 2014 to 2016. Following a pattern shown for previous economic downturns in other countries, the Brazilian recession was preceded by a substantial increase in household debt from 2003 to 2014. This study utilizes a novel individual level data set on household borrowing in order to provide details of the household debt boom. The data set allows for a decomposition of the rise in household debt by the type of debt and by the source of debt, and it allows for an analysis of the income of individuals taking on more debt during the boom. We conclude with an exploration of potential causes of the rise in household debt.
Handbook of US Consumer Economics
Handbook of U.S. Consumer Economics presents a deep understanding on key, current topics and a primer on the landscape of contemporary research on the U.S. consumer. This volume reveals new insights into household decision-making on consumption and saving, borrowing and investing, portfolio allocation, demand of professional advice, and retirement choices. Nearly 70% of U.S. gross domestic product is devoted to consumption, making an understanding of the consumer a first order issue in macroeconomics. After all, understanding how households played an important role in the boom and bust cycle that led to the financial crisis and recent great recession is a key metric. Introduces household finance by examining consumption and borrowing choices Tackles macro-problems by observing new, original micro-data Looks into the future of consumer spending by using data, not questionnaires
Household Credit as Stimulus? Evidence from Brazil
From 2011 to 2014, the Brazilian government conducted a heavily advertised major credit expansion program through government banks as part of its effort to stimulate the economy. Using administrative data on individual-level borrowing and spending, we find that the program led to a substantial rise in borrowing by government employees, especially those with low financial literacy. We trace the impact of credit stimulus on borrowers' consumption through the 2011-16 business cycle, and find that the credit stimulus resulted in higher consumption volatility and lower average consumption over the cycle. Our results suggest a potential downside of using household credit as stimulus in emerging markets.
Uncovering Memory
My interest in site-specific research is not random. My mother escaped through the sewers of Breslau, Germany in 1945 (today known as Wroclaw, Poland). My father was born in a country that no longer exists. Their final destination was Johannesburg, South Africa. This is where I enter the narrative. I was born during apartheid and my interest in memory and identity is a result of my historical and political context.’ Each one of us comes with a history, a complex web of DNA and a library of information that shapes who we are and how we view the world. How can we use our own complexities not only to engage with one another but to build it for story content? As an artistic researcher, filmmak...
The Long-Term Impact of High School Financial Education
In 2011, the impact of a comprehensive financial education program was studied through a randomized controlled trial with 892 high schools in six Brazilian states. Using administrative data, this paper follows 16,000 students for the next nine years. The short-term findings were that the treatment students used expensive credit and were behind on payments. By contrast, in the long-term, treatment students were less likely to borrow from expensive sources and to have loans with late payments than control students. Treatment students were also more likely to own microenterprises and less likely to be formally employed than control students.
