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Turning Vietnam's COVID-19 Success Into Economic Recovery
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in income and employment loss in many countries around the world. Yet, hardly any formal study exists on household finance and future economic expectations in poorer countries. To fill in this gap, we implemented and analyzed a web-based rapid assessment survey immediately after the removal of lockdown measures in Vietnam, a lower-middle-income country that has received widespread recognition for its successful fight against the pandemic. We find that having a job is strongly and positively associated with better finance and more income and savings, as well as more optimism about the resilience of the economy. Further disaggregating employment into different types of jobs such as self-employment and jobs with permanent and short-term contracts, we find those with permanent job contracts to be more strongly associated with better assessments and fewer job worries. Individuals with good health and higher educational levels also have more positive evaluations for their current and future finance. These findings are relevant for post-outbreak economic policies, especially regarding the labor market in a developing country context.
To Impute Or Not to Impute?
There is an increasingly stronger demand for more frequent and accurate poverty estimates, despite the oftentimes unavailable household consumption data. This paper offers a review of alternative imputation methods that have been employed to provide poverty estimates in such contexts. These range from estimates on a nonmonetary basis, estimates for specific project targeting or tracking trends at the national level, to estimates at a more disaggregated level, as well as estimates of poverty dynamics. The paper provides a concise and accessible synthesis, which serves as an introduction to the literature. The focus is on intuition and practical insights that highlight the nuanced differences between the existing methods rather than technical aspects.
Inequality of Opportunity In Education
Inequalities in the opportunity to obtain a good education in low-income countries are widely understood to be related to household resources and schooling quality. Yet, to date, most researchers have investigated the contributions of these two factors separately. This paper considers them jointly, paying special attention to their covariation, which indicates whether schools exacerbate or compensate for existing household-based inequalities. The paper develops a new variance decomposition framework and applies it to data on more than one million children in three low-income East African countries. The empirical results show that although household factors account for a significant share of total test score variation, variation in school quality and positive sorting between households and schools are, together, no less important. The analysis also finds evidence of substantial geographical heterogeneity in schooling quality. The paper concludes that promoting equity in education in East Africa requires policies that go beyond raising average school quality and should attend to the distribution of school quality as well as assortative matching between households and schools.
Does Sorting Matter for Learning Inequality?
Inequalities in children's learning are widely recognized to arise from variations in both household- and school-related factors. While few studies have considered the role of sorting between schools and households, even fewer have quantified how much sorting contributes to educational inequalities in low- and middle-income countries. We fill this gap using data on over one million children from three countries in Eastern Africa. Applying a novel variance decomposition procedure, our results indicate that sorting of pupils across schools accounts for at least 8 per cent of the total test-score variance and that this contribution tends to be largest for children from families at either end of the socio-economic spectrum. Empirical simulations of steady-state educational inequalities reveal that policies to mitigate the consequences of sorting could substantially reduce inequalities in education.
Toward a New Definition of Shared Prosperity
\This paper proposes a new measure of growth in shared prosperity, based on shifts in population shares of different income groups over time. This measure complements the definition of shared prosperity recently proposed by the World Bank in which income growth of the bottom 40 percent is examined. The new measure's strengths arise from its close ties to countries' national poverty lines and poverty measures, its focus on inclusion of the vulnerable population, and its identification of a population segment that is neither poor nor at significant risk of falling into poverty. The paper also offers a typology of scenarios for tracking shared prosperity under this measure. It provides illustrative examples using survey data from India, the United States, and Vietnam for the mid-to-late 2000s. Estimation results comparing the two approaches with measuring the evolution of shared prosperity are qualitatively consistent, and suggest that during this period, Vietnam enjoyed the greatest expansion in shared prosperity, followed by India and then the United States.
The Beneficial Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Air Pollution
Little evidence currently exists on the effects of COVID-19 on air quality in poorer countries, where most air pollution-linked deaths occur. We offer the first study that examines the pandemic's impacts on improving air quality in Vietnam, a lower-middle income country with worsening air pollution. Employing the Regression Discontinuity Design method to analyze a rich database that we compile from satellite air pollution data and data from various other sources, we find the concentration of NO2 to decrease by 24 to 32 percent two weeks after the COVID-19 lockdown. While this finding is robust to different measures of air quality and model specifications, the positive effects of the lockdown appear to dissipate after ten weeks. We also find that mobility restrictions are a potential channel for improved air quality. Finally, our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that two weeks after the lockdown, the economic gains from better air quality are roughly $0.6 billion US dollars.
