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Iran and the GCC
"If key Gulf powers and Iran remain at loggerheads, the prospect of a historic international agreement over Iran's nuclear programme risks deepening - rather than easing - the conflicts afflicting the Middle East, writes Jane Kinninmont." --
Bahrain
Bahrain faces a long-running local dispute about the sharing of power and wealth. Politics have become increasingly polarized along sectarian lines, a trend exacerbated by outside actors. The government has taken some steps to address human rights abuses and to create new mechanisms for the oversight of the security services. However, the effect will depend on the political will invested in them. So far the indications are negative. There is still scope to find common ground between the different elements of Bahraini society in support of a constitutional monarchy, based on a revitalized social contract, not on sect-based power-sharing. There may now be an opportunity to develop a fresh GCC mediation effort in the context of discussions on greater GCC unity. The repression in Bahrain, a Western ally, complicates and hinders the efforts of the US and UK to sketch out a new policy towards a Middle East where demands for democracy have become increasingly vocal.
Vision 2030 and Saudi Arabia’s Social Contract
London : Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, 2017 ; 46 pages in PDF.
Yemen
"Far from being on a guaranteed path towards a secure, prosperous future, Yemen confronts serious risks of political instability and a looming resource crisis, forced by the rapid depletion of the oil reserves that underpin the state budget. The interim government of Yemen has committed itself to political and economic reforms, but may struggle to push them through in face of the resistance of incumbent elite interests." -- From Publisher's web site.
Iraq Ten Years on
This report brings together a variety of perspectives on the state of Iraq ten years after the US-led invasion in 2003 and sets out some possible scenarios for the country's future. It begins with an overview of the political changes that have been under way since the invasion, with a focus on conflict and political violence, the debate over the nation-state and the dynamics of a political transition weighed down by the legacies of dictatorship and occupation. The report discusses Iraq's domestic politics, foreign policy and relations with regional and international powers, as well as the impact that the regime change has had on perceptions of democracy, Middle Eastern authoritarianism and t...
House of Commons - Foreign Affairs Committee: The UK's Relations with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain - HC 88
Saudi Arabia and Bahrain remain key partners for the UK but relations are complicated by the differences between our societies and the pressing need for reform in the Gulf. Historic warm relations between the UK government and the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are not mirrored in public opinion in Saudi Arabia and the UK, and the UK's reputation in Bahrain has also suffered since 2011. The Government must make its public profile and reputation a more central part of its work in the Gulf, consider how it can best support much-needed economic and political reforms, and how it can explain its policies and point to specific achievements when speaking to the public at home and in the Gulf. ...
Moving Target
"UK cooperation with Gulf countries to counter 'extremism' is problematic, and risks inadvertently bolstering repression." --
Kuwait's Parliament
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