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Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility
In this paper we analyze the behavior of stock markets in six emerging countries. More specifically, we describe the bull and bear cycles of four Latin American and two Asian countries, comparing their characteristics during both phases and the degree of concordance of bullish periods. We divide our sample in two subperiods in order to account for differences induced by the financial liberalization processes that these countries went through in the early 1990's. We find that cycles in emerging countries tend to have shorter duration and larger amplitude and volatility than in developed countries. However, after financial liberalization Latin American stock markets have behaved more similarly to stock markets in developed countries whereas Asian countries have become more dissimilar. Concordance of cycles across markets has increased significantly over time, especially for Latin American countries after liberalization.
Bulls and Bears
This paper analyzes the recent behavior of stock markets in four European countries. More specifically, we describe the bull and bear phases of those markets, comparing some of their more relevant features across countries and with those of the US. We also comment on the degree of concordance of stock market phases across countries. We find that cycles in European countries have become substantially more concordant in the recent years, a result that was to be expected given the increased integration of the European financial markets, but that the degree of concordance is not high.
Managing Economic Volatility and Crises
Economic volatility has come into its own after being treated for decades as a secondary phenomenon in the business cycle literature. This evolution has been driven by the recognition that non-linearities, long buried by the economist's penchant for linearity, magnify the negative effects of volatility on long-run growth and inequality, especially in poor countries. This collection organizes empirical and policy results for economists and development policy practitioners into four parts: basic features, including the impact of volatility on growth and poverty; commodity price volatility; the financial sector's dual role as an absorber and amplifier of shocks; and the management and prevention of macroeconomic crises. The latter section includes a cross-country study, case studies on Argentina and Russia, and lessons from the debt default episodes of the 1980s and 1990s.
Are Shocks to Interest Rate Volatility Symmetric Across EU Countries?
In this paper we analyze the degree to which European economies are hit by symmetric shocks. We study shocks that lead to an increased volatility of the interest rate and model the behavior of European short term interest rates as having two regimes that correspond to high and low volatility of the rate. We use a bivariate switching regime model to compare the behavior over time of the Spanish interest rate with that of the four major EU countries. We find that the symmetry of shocks received by these countries in the years prior to the monetary union was not strong, thus giving evidence against the convenience of a unified monetary policy.
Development Macroeconomics
The global financial crisis triggered severe shocks for developing countries, whose embrace of greater commercial and financial openness has increased their exposure to external shocks, both real and financial. This new edition of Development Macroeconomics has been fully revised to address the more open and less stable environment in which developing countries operate today. Describing the latest advances in this rapidly changing field, the book features expanded coverage of public debt and the management of capital inflows as well as new material on fiscal discipline, monetary policy regimes, currency, banking and sovereign debt crises, currency unions, and the choice of an exchange-rate r...
Essentials of International Marketing
Unlike other International Marketing texts, Essentials of International Marketing includes only the most important information that can be easily covered in one semester. The book covers all the key topics for an International Marketing course, but in a concise, no-nonsense manner that meets the needs of undergraduates..In addition to including all the basic topics, this affordable text also offers two unique chapters on the metric system and on countertrade that provide essential information for successful international marketers. Essentials of International Marketing has been extensively class-tested and is well crafted to serve as a learning tool and a ready reference for students. Each chapter includes an opening case vignette, learning objectives, plentiful exhibits and tables, a summary, key terms, and discussion questions.
Understanding the Relationship Between Financial Development and Monetary Policy
In this paper we summarize the results of a broad exploratory empirical analysis where we relate the level of financial development with the effectiveness of monetary policy. The analysis is based on a panel of countries for which we calculate measures both of financial development and of monetary policy effectiveness. We look for statistically significant relationships between the indicators of financial development, the effectiveness coefficients, and other macroeconomic characteristics by estimating dynamic panels and performing a cluster analysis. We present our results in the form of a list of stylized facts that we consider deserve further attention.
