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Mullahs, Guards, and Bonyads
The Islamic Republic of Iran poses serious challenges to U.S. interests in the Middle East, and its nuclear program continues to worry, and bring condemnation and sanction from, the international community. Yet the U.S. ability to "read" the regime in Tehran and formulate appropriate policies has been handicapped by the lack of access to Iran experienced by U.S. diplomats and other citizens and by what many observers lament as the opacity of Iranian decision making processes. The objective of this book is to offer a framework to help U.S. policymakers and analysts better understand existing and evolving leadership dynamics driving Iranian decision making. The research herein provides not only a basic primer on the structure, institutions, and personalities of the government and other influential power centers but also a better understanding of Iranian elite behavior as a driver of Iranian policy formulation and execution. The book pays special attention to emerging fissures within the regime, competing centers of power, and the primacy of informal networks-- a particularly important yet not well understood hallmark of the Iranian system.
Revolution in Iran
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The Next Supreme Leader
Iran1s commander in chief and highest political authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, plays a critical role in Iran1s direction. This monograph explores factors shaping the succession to Khamenei and outlines post-Khamenei scenarios.
The Stryker Brigade Combat Team
Examines alternative means to decrease the deployment time for the new Army medium-weight brigade, comparing air and sealift from the United States with air and fast (but short-range) sealift from forward bases or preposition sites. Historical experience and an assessment of U.S. regional interests are used to determine how much warning time the United States typically has before major force deployments and where it is most likely to deploy such forces
Iran, Israel, and the United States
This book analyzes the process of evaluating Iran’s nuclear project and the efforts to roll it back, resulting in the 2015 nuclear agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA). Despite its aura of scientific exactitude, nuclear intelligence is complex and susceptible to methodological disagreements and political bias at the international oversight level—the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—and within the countries involved in the rollback project – Israel and the United States. To highlight both the technological problems of assessing compliance and the politicization, each chapter in the book uses a real-time comparison of the nuclear developments in Ira...
Containing Iran
Iran's nuclear program is one of this century's principal foreign policy challenges. Despite U.S., Israeli, and allied efforts, Iran has an extensive enrichment program and likely has the technical capacity to produce at least one nuclear bomb if it so chose. This study assesses U.S. policy options, identifies a way forward, and considers how the United States might best mitigate the negative international effects of a nuclear-armed Iran.
The Future Security Environment in the Middle East
This report identifies several important trends that are shaping regional security. It examines traditional security concerns, such as energy security and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, as well as newer challenges posed by political reform, economic reform, civil-military relations, leadership change, and the information revolution. The report concludes by identifying the implications of these trends for U.S. foreign policy.
Recasting NATO's Strategic Concept
The revision of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's strategic concept offers an excellent opportunity to build an alliance capable of addressing the shared problems that its member states face. To spur debate over concrete problems, this paper examines five possible future directions for the alliance.
