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Assessing Country Risk
Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.
Republic of Madagascar
This Selected Issues paper surveys the economic costs of corruption in Madagascar, and provides a few ideas on how to advance anticorruption reforms. Madagascar’s governance indicators weakened significantly during the transition period 2009–13. Governance indicators that generally were on par with middle-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) ten years ago have regressed and converged to the average of fragile SSA countries. After the return of constitutional order in 2014, the government has started to address corruption, mainly through the introduction of new laws so far. More emphasis is needed on effective implementation and raising sufficient resources to fight corruption.
Rethinking Financial Deepening
The global financial crisis experience shone a spotlight on the dangers of financial systems that have grown too big too fast. This note reexamines financial deepening, focusing on what emerging markets can learn from the advanced economy experience. It finds that gains for growth and stability from financial deepening remain large for most emerging markets, but there are limits on size and speed. When financial deepening outpaces the strength of the supervisory framework, it leads to excessive risk taking and instability. Encouragingly, the set of regulatory reforms that promote financial depth is essentially the same as those that contribute to greater stability. Better regulation—not necessarily more regulation—thus leads to greater possibilities both for development and stability.
Collaboration Between Regional Financing Arrangements and the IMF
The Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN) has expanded considerably since 2008, including in the non-traditional elements of the safety net such as Regional Financing Arrangements (RFAs). The resulting multi-layered structure of the GFSN makes collaboration between its various elements more important than in the past. Specifically, stronger collaboration between the Fund and RFAs would help increase the effective firepower of the GFSN and ensure a timely deployment of resources. The Fund’s experience in macroeconomic adjustment and its universal risk pooling would combine with the greater regional knowledge and country ownership brought the RFA. In this way, improved collaboration between the...
Belgium
This Selected Issues paper illustrates the recent evolution in Belgian housing prices. Belgian housing prices peaked at the end of 2013 after a persistent increase that was almost continuous for 30 years. The stabilization of prices, combined with policy changes on the fiscal and macro-prudential fronts, raises the question how housing prices are likely to evolve and how a price decline would affect the Belgian economy. The paper assesses the risk of a rapid price correction and the potential repercussions for the real economy. It also argues that an orderly and limited decline in housing prices—coupled with a marginal negative effect on the real economy—is the most plausible scenario.
A Generalized Framework for the Assessment of Household Financial Vulnerability
Household financial fragility has received considerable attention following the global financial crisis, but substantial gaps remain in the analytical underpinnings of household financial vulnerability assessment, as well as in data availability. This paper aims at integrating the contributions in the literature in a coherent fashion. The study proposes also analytical and estimation extensions aimed at improving the quality of estimates and allowing the assessment of household financial vulnerability in presence of data limitations. The result of this effort is a comprehensive framework, that has wide applicability to both advanced and developing economies. For illustrative purposes the paper includes a detailed application to one developing country (Namibia).
IMF Lending in an Interconnected World
We analyze the determinants of IMF lending since the early nineties, a period during which the roles of financial cycles and interconnectedness as amplifiers and transmitters of economic crises have gained prominence. First, we show that the global financial cycle is an important driver of IMF lending cycles. Second, using a panel of 91 advanced, emerging, and frontier economies over 1992-2014, we show that global factors and interconnectedness, as proxied by a countries’ potential exposure to economic spillovers from trade partners, together with more traditional idiosyncratic factors, have a significant impact on the probability that a member country obtains financial assistance from the IMF. Our results are robust to various robustness checks. The approach presented in this paper can be used to assess future demand for IMF financial assistance.
Expenditure Rules
This paper provides new evidence on the effectiveness of expenditure rules. The analysis is based on a unique dataset covering all countries with national and supranational fiscal rules, including 33 expenditure rules, between 1985 and 2013. It contributes to the existing literature on fiscal rules in two main ways. First, it is the most comprehensive assessment of compliance with rules and of the potential role of expenditure rules, in particular regarding long-term sustainability. Second, it analyzes whether expenditure rules are associated with changes in public investment and its efficiency.
Finance & Development, September 2018
This paper discusses that from shifting demographics to climate change, Southeast Asia confronts a host of challenges. Summoning them will require both resilience and flexibility. Advances in artificial intelligence, including robotics, together with innovations such as 3-D printing and new composite materials, will transform manufacturing processes, making them less labor-intensive while creating opportunities for new products. This will enable new ways of making things and change the drivers of competitiveness. There will be indirect effects as well. For example, aircraft manufacturers, taking advantage of new composite materials such as carbon fibers, have developed a class of superlong-h...
