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Stress Testing in Sub-Saharan Africa
The paper finds that supervisory stress tests are conducted in more than half of sub-Saharan African countries, particularly in western and southern Africa, and that the number of individual stress tests has grown exponentially since the early 2010s. By contrast, few central banks publish assessments of macro-financial linkages; the focus leans more toward discussing trends and weaknesses within the financial sector than on outside risks that may negatively affect its performance.
Expected Credit Loss Modeling from a Top-Down Stress Testing Perspective
The objective of this paper is to present an integrated tool suite for IFRS 9- and CECL-compatible estimation in top-down solvency stress tests. The tool suite serves as an illustration for institutions wishing to include accounting-based approaches for credit risk modeling in top-down stress tests.
Indonesia
The financial system appears to be broadly resilient, has strong capital and liquidity buffers but remains relatively small and dominated by banks, especially few state-owned banks. Household and corporate indebtedness and public debt are low. The macroprudential policy framework features both financial stability and development objectives. The recently passed Financial Sector Omnibus Law (FSOL) will make notable reforms to the financial sector.
Georgia
This paper discusses findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment for Georgia. Georgia has weathered several shocks, but still faces a number of important risks. The economy has withstood well the conflict with Russia, the global financial crisis, and domestic political uncertainty. Significant steps have been taken to strengthen banking regulation and supervision, which exhibit a very high degree of compliance with international standards. The National Bank of Georgia has also introduced an advanced risk-based supervisory regime while maintaining a conservative approach aimed at detecting vulnerabilities at an early stage, and allocating supervisory resources in the most efficient and effective manner.
Can Financial Soundness Indicators Help Predict Financial Sector Distress?
This paper shows how the role of Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) in financial surveillance can be usefully enhanced. Drawing from different statistical techniques, the paper illustrates that FSIs generate signals that can accurately detect, with 4 to 12 quarters lead, emerging financial distress—as measured by tight financial conditions.
A Generalized Framework for the Assessment of Household Financial Vulnerability
Household financial fragility has received considerable attention following the global financial crisis, but substantial gaps remain in the analytical underpinnings of household financial vulnerability assessment, as well as in data availability. This paper aims at integrating the contributions in the literature in a coherent fashion. The study proposes also analytical and estimation extensions aimed at improving the quality of estimates and allowing the assessment of household financial vulnerability in presence of data limitations. The result of this effort is a comprehensive framework, that has wide applicability to both advanced and developing economies. For illustrative purposes the paper includes a detailed application to one developing country (Namibia).
Bank Profitability and Financial Stability
We analyze how bank profitability impacts financial stability from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We first develop a theoretical model of the relationship between bank profitability and financial stability by exploring the role of non-interest income and retail-oriented business models. We then conduct panel regression analysis to examine the empirical determinants of bank risks and profitability, and how the level and the source of bank profitability affect risks for 431 publicly traded banks (U.S., advanced Europe, and GSIBs) from 2004 to 2017. Results reveal that profitability is negatively associated with both a bank’s contribution to systemic risk and its idiosyncratic r...
Stress Testing within the Banking Industry
Central banks have become part of our modern life. Understanding their operations and policies is important, even to a layperson. At the core of their mission is financial stability. The stress test is one of the tools that Central Banks (or monetary authorities) use to assess how sound commercial banks are within their jurisdictions at any point in time. Bank stress testing is designed to test the resilience of banks to severe but plausible shocks. These scenarios are conceived around a fall of asset prices, a shock to interest rates, a reassessment of risk premiums or a large depreciation to correct an external imbalance. Nonetheless, passing a stress test does not provide a blind assurance that a financial institution is safe and outside the reach of collapse. This book aims to educate on the risks tested and the methods often used in stress testing. It is the first book in its field to make a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of stress testing, including climate risk.
United Republic of Tanzania
The global recession has had a significant impact on economic performance and the outlook in Tanzania. Tanzanian banks were not directly affected by the global financial crisis, but second-round effects of the crisis have intensified the risks to the financial sector. Domestic liquidity tightened considerably at the onset of the global financial crisis but has since eased, owing to a significant loosening of monetary policy to help mitigate the economic downturn. The policy response of the authorities included a rescue package designed to support sectors affected by the crisis.
