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Monte Carlo Or Bust
Almost everyone is familiar with Monte Carlo's association with gambling, and its famous Casino. Many may also have come across the Monte Carlo fallacy, so-called after the Casino's roulette wheel ball fell on black 26th times in a row, costing players, who believed that the law of averages made such streaks impossible, millions of dollars. However, the Casino also lends its name to a tool of statistical forecasting, the Monte Carlo simulation, used to model the probability of uncertain outcomes that cannot be easily predicted from mathematical equations. This book provides a detailed account for how aspiring sports bettors can use a Monte Carlo simulation to improve the quality, and hopefully profitability, of their betting, and in doing so unravels the mystery of probability and variance that lies at the heart of all gambling.
Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks
People have been gambling, in one form or another, for as long as history itself. Why? Money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win are all traditional explanations. Arguably, however, these are secondary considerations to a higher order purpose: a craving for control. Gambling offers a means of gaining authority over the unknown, granting us a sense of control over uncertainty. Almost always that sense is illusionary - gambling, including betting and investing, is essentially random - yet for many it is nonetheless profoundly rewarding. This book attempts to explore the reasons why. Along the way, it examines: The science of probability and uncertainty; Why gambling is often condemned; The difference between expectation and utility; The irrationality of human beings; Evolutionary perspectives on gambling; Luck and skill; Market efficiency and the wisdom of crowds; Why winners take all; Cheating; Why the process matters more than the outcome.
Fixed Odds Sports Betting
Few people manage to make money from gambling, and fewer still make a living from it. Written for hardened and novice betters alike, Joseph Buchdahl's essential guide examines, through various numerical techniques, how fixed odds punters may learn to beat the bookmaker, protect profits through a sensible approach to risk management, and turn high-risk gambling into a form of low-risk investment.
How to find a Black Cat in a Coal Cellar
How do we know if we can beat the bookmaker? That's easy: just look at our bank balance. But how do we know if we've not just been lucky? More specifically, how do we know that someone who says he can do it, and who is selling his 'expertise', can keep doing it again and again, through talent, skill and hard work? This book examines the techniques available to answer that question, to identify those qualities and to help the punter find value for money in an industry that appears to be largely built on trust and the influence of chance; to uncover the truth about sports tipsters and ultimately how to find the best tipsters - the 'Black Cats'.
Soccermatics
Soccer as you have never viewed it before--an eye-opening presentation of the world s favorite sport."
The Dearly Beloved
“This gentle, gorgeously written book may be one of my favorites ever.” —Jenna Bush Hager (A Today show “Read with Jenna” Book Club Selection!) “A thoughtful, beautiful multigenerational novel about love, God, jealousy, and friendship.” —Elizabeth Gilbert, author of Eat, Pray, Love “A moving portrait of love and friendship set against a backdrop of social change.” —The New York Times Book Review (Editor’s Choice) “Here is the power of the novel in its simplest, richest form: bearing intimate witness to human beings grappling with their faith and falling in love. That Wall executes it so beautifully? Well, this is exactly why we read literary fiction...The best book ...
Casino Life
Walking through the doors of a casino can feel like entering a portal into another dimension. A cacophony of electronic and human sounds assaults the ears as you watch people transacting large amounts of money. But this is no ordinary purchasing of goods or services where you quietly wave a card or hand out notes from a purse. Instead, money is swapped for colourful plastic chips that are placed, pushed, and thrown onto gaming tables with seemingly reckless abandon by a wide array of people, young, old, cultured, relaxed, happy, and grim. Phil Watts, as an experienced forensic psychologist, knew a lot about human nature before he walked into his first casino at 40 years of age. He had treate...
Mathletics
How to use math to improve performance and predict outcomes in professional sports Mathletics reveals the mathematical methods top coaches and managers use to evaluate players and improve team performance, and gives math enthusiasts the practical skills they need to enhance their understanding and enjoyment of their favorite sports—and maybe even gain the outside edge to winning bets. This second edition features new data, new players and teams, and new chapters on soccer, e-sports, golf, volleyball, gambling Calcuttas, analysis of camera data, Bayesian inference, ridge regression, and other statistical techniques. After reading Mathletics, you will understand why baseball teams should almost never bunt; why football overtime systems are unfair; why points, rebounds, and assists aren’t enough to determine who’s the NBA’s best player; and more.
Sports Investing
"Sports Investing: Profiting from Point Spreads" introduces strategies and tactics that turn the sports betting market into a more businesslike activity. We prefer the term "sports investor" instead of "sports bettor" because we take a professional view of the sports marketplace.
Statistical Sports Models in Excel
What does it take to create a winning sports betting model?Many people are interested in learning how to make smarter sports betting wagers. Not many of those same people are excited at the prospect of learning applied statistics to better inform their choices. You can't entirely blame them. Statistics has a well-earned reputation for being somewhat inaccessible by non-academics. It is a field filled with heavy terminology, confusing formulaic notation and concepts not fully relevant to the beginning sports bettor. To make matters worse, nobody in possession of a positive edge model is all that keen to show you how it works. As a result of this, sports modelling successfully requires a toolb...
