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The Measure of Economies
"How do we measure economic productivity if not by GDP? Traditional economic methods, including GDP, tell us that productivity has slowed dramatically in the US and other developed economies over the last two decades. This has led to calls for all manner of government interventions, including revised tax policies and the strengthening of antitrust measures to increase competition. But are our twentieth-century economic methods actually measuring our twenty-first-century productivity? The Measure of Economies offers a practical overview of measuring productivity in economics in a world where GDP is no longer a catch-all. With chapters authored by leading economic experts, it is at once an intervention against the insufficiency of old practices and a cutting-edge guide to their alternatives. It is an essential resource for social scientists and researchers for a century of change in the output of nations"--
An Aging Society
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Large Investors
Recent studies of crude oil price formation emphasize the role of interest rates and convenience yield (the adjusted spot-futures spread), confirming that spot prices mean-revert and normally exceed discounted futures. However, these studies don't explain why such "backwardation" is normal. Also, models derived in these studies typically explain only about 1 percent of daily returns, suggesting other factors are important, too.
An Aging Society
Cf.: http://dx.doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01017.v1.
The Household Spending Response to the 2003 Tax Cut
The Jobs and Growth Tax Relief and Reconciliation Act of 2003 has been described as textbook fiscal stimulus. Using household survey data on the self-reported qualitative response to the tax cuts, we estimate that the boost to aggregate personal consumption expenditures from the child credit rebate and the reduction in withholdings raised the average level of real GDP in the second half of 2003 by 0.2 percent and by 0.3 percent in the first half of 2004. We also show that households in the survey were well aware of their tax cuts and tended to spend equally out of the child credit rebate and the reduced withholdings, a result that is contrary to the conventional wisdom.
How the Growing Gap in Life Expectancy May Affect Retirement Benefits and Reforms
Older Americans have experienced dramatic gains in life expectancy in recent decades, but an emerging literature reveals that these gains are accumulating mostly to those at the top of the income distribution. We explore how growing inequality in life expectancy affects lifetime benefits from Social Security, Medicare, and other programs and how this phenomenon interacts with possible program reforms. We first project that life expectancy at age 50 for males in the two highest income quintiles will rise by 7 to 8 years between the 1930 and 1960 birth cohorts, but that the two lowest income quintiles will experience little to no increase over that time period. This divergence in life expectancy will cause the gap between average lifetime program benefits received by men in the highest and lowest quintiles to widen by $130,000 (in $2009) over this period. Finally we simulate the effect of Social Security reforms such as raising the normal retirement age and changing the benefit formula to see whether they mitigate or enhance the reduced progressivity resulting from the widening gap in life expectancy.
Studies in the Economics of Aging
Studies in the Economics of Aging is the fourth book in a series from the National Bureau of Economic Research that addresses economic issues in aging and retirement. Building on the research in The Economics of Aging (1989), Issues in the Economics of Aging (1990), and Topics in the Economics of Aging (1992), this volume examines elderly population growth and government spending, life expectancy and health, saving for retirement and housing values, aging in Germany and Taiwan, and the utilization of nursing home and other long-term care.
