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On the Determinants of Fiscal Non-Compliance
This paper proposes an empirical framework that distinguishes voluntary from involuntary compliance with fiscal deficit targets on the basis of economic, institutional, and political factors. The framework is applied to Spain’s Autonomous Communities (regions) over the period 2002-2015. Fiscal noncompliance among Spain’s regions has shown to be persistent. It increases with the size of growth forecast errors and the extent to which fiscal targets are tightened, factors not fully under the control of regional governments. Non-compliance also tends to increase during election years, when vertical fiscal imbalances accentuate, and market financing costs subside. Strong fiscal rules have not shown any significant impact in containing fiscal non-compliance. Reducing fiscal non-compliance in multilevel governance systems such as the one in Spain requires a comprehensive assessment of intergovernmental fiscal arrangements that looks beyond rules-based frameworks by ensuring enforcement procedures are politically credible.
Fiscal Politics
Two main themes of the book are that (1) politics can distort optimal fiscal policy through elections and through political fragmentation, and (2) rules and institutions can attenuate the negative effects of this dynamic. The book has three parts: part 1 (9 chapters) outlines the problems; part 2 (6 chapters) outlines how institutions and fiscal rules can offer solutions; and part 3 (4 chapters) discusses how multilevel governance frameworks can help.
Excerpt: Fiscal Politics
This paper discusses how politics affects policies on the fiscal front. The literature on the political economy of fiscal policy dates back to the nineteenth century when the Italian and Swedish schools of public finance began to analyze how governments choose policies. During the twentieth century, the Public Choice school continued this work and focused on the political incentives and constraints in policy formulation. Elections mainly affect the stabilization and redistribution functions of the government. Proximity of elections can influence the government’s budget decisions in various ways. Ideology heavily influences fiscal policies that pertain to redistribution. Leftwing parties dr...
On the Determinants of Fiscal Non-Compliance
This paper proposes an empirical framework that distinguishes voluntary from involuntary compliance with fiscal deficit targets on the basis of economic, institutional, and political factors. The framework is applied to Spain’s Autonomous Communities (regions) over the period 2002-2015. Fiscal noncompliance among Spain’s regions has shown to be persistent. It increases with the size of growth forecast errors and the extent to which fiscal targets are tightened, factors not fully under the control of regional governments. Non-compliance also tends to increase during election years, when vertical fiscal imbalances accentuate, and market financing costs subside. Strong fiscal rules have not shown any significant impact in containing fiscal non-compliance. Reducing fiscal non-compliance in multilevel governance systems such as the one in Spain requires a comprehensive assessment of intergovernmental fiscal arrangements that looks beyond rules-based frameworks by ensuring enforcement procedures are politically credible.
The Economics of Catalan Separatism
This book analyses the economic consequences of the regional government of Catalonia's challenge to democracy and the rule of law in Spain. This process, started in 2010, culminated in a coup d'état in the autumn of 2017. The book has three parts. First: The circumstances behind the challenge: economic structure, social and political aspects. Second: The economic impacts of the resulting huge political instability and social polarisation, and the downturn in GDP, investment, competitiveness, Barcelona's appeal, and flight of companies and banks to Madrid. Third: Independence would mean collapse of trade with the rest of Spain and the EU, expulsion from the eurozone, fall of GDP, plummeting tax revenue, soaring unemployment and, finally, conversion of this hypothetical new Catalonia into a failed, vassal and totalitarian state. This book is destined to be the foremost work of reference on the consequences of the separatist threat to Spain, including Catalonia's current decline.
IMF Research Bulletin, Summer 2017
The Summer 2017 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin highlights new research such as recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The Research Summaries are “Structural Reform Packages, Sequencing, and the Informal Economy (by Zsuzsa Munkacsi and Magnus Saxegaard) and “A Broken Social Contract, Not High Inequality Led to the Arab Spring” (by Shantayanan Devarajan and Elena Ianchovichina). The Q&A section features “Seven Questions on Fintech” (by Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli). The Bulletin also includes information on recommended titles from IMF Publications and the latest articles from the IMF Economic Review.
Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Adoption of fiscal rules and fiscal councils continued to increase globally over the last decades based on two new global datasets. During the pandemic, fiscal frameworks were put to test. The widespread use of escape clauses was one of the novelties in this crisis, which helped provide policy room to respond to the health crisis. But the unprecedented fiscal actions have led to large and widespread deviations from deficit and debt limits. The evidence shows that fiscal rules, in general, have been flexible during crises but have not prevented a large and persistent buildup of debt over time. Experience shows that deviations from debt limits are very difficult to reverse. The paper also presents evidence on the benefits of a good track record in abiding by the rules. All these highlight the difficult policy choices ahead and need to further improve rules-based fiscal frameworks.
La pachorra conservadora
En opinión del autor de este libro, Mariano Rajoy tiene un modo peculiar de gobernación: una mezcla de pachorra conservadora y de arte para explotar en su favor la incertidumbre de los demás. Por ello no se apresura a tomar decisiones y busca molestar lo menos posible a los poderes establecidos, entre ellos a los de su propio partido. Mikel Buesa, catedrático de Economía Aplicada en la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, colaborador habitual en La linterna (COPE) y La marimorena (13TV), así como columnista en La Razón y Libertad Digital, realiza en estas páginas un exhaustivo y profundo análisis de cuatro aspectos básicos del Estado desde que Rajoy asumiera la presidencia en diciemb...
The Iodine Molecule
This book presents experimental and theoretical spectroscopic studies performed over the last 25 years on the iodine molecule’s excited states and their perturbations. It is going to be of interest to researchers who study intra- and intermolecular perturbations in diatomic molecules and more complex systems. The book offers a detailed treatment of the nonadiabatic perturbations of valence, ion-pair and Rydberg states induced by intramolecular as well as intermolecular interactions in collisions or in weakly-bound complexes. It also provides an overview of current instrumentation and techniques as well as theoretical approaches describing intra- and intermolecular perturbations. The author...
