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Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system
This report assesses the cost of adaptation to climate change across a range of future climate scenarios and investment options. We focus on offsetting climate change impacts on hunger through investment in agricultural research, water management, and rural infrastructure in developing countries. We link climate, crop, water, and economic models to (1) analyze scenarios of future change in the agriculture sector to 2050 and (2) assess trade-offs for these investments across key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for poverty, hunger, and water. Our reference projections show that climate change slows progress toward eliminating hunger, with an additional 78 million people facing chronic hun...
Socio-Technical Innovation Bundles for Agri-Food Systems Transformation
This open access book is the result of an expert panel convened by the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability and Nature Sustainability. The panel tackled the seventeen UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030 head-on, with respect to the global systems that produce and distribute food. The panel’s rigorous synthesis and analysis of existing research leads compellingly to multiple actionable recommendations that, if adopted, would simultaneously lead to healthy and nutritious diets, equitable and inclusive value chains, resilience to shocks and stressors, and climate and environmental sustainability.
Quantifying the cost and benefits of ending hunger and undernutrition: Examining the differences among alternative approaches
This brief examines estimates produced by several recent model simulations and frameworks that focus on the cost of ending hunger as well as progress toward other development goals—estimates that range from US$7 billion to US$265 billion per year. The differences among these estimates are largely attributable to the different targeted objectives and policy questions of each modeling exercise, different investment strategies considered, and varying assumptions about the role of different sectors in reducing hunger.
Agricultural development: New perspectives in a changing world
Agricultural Development: New Perspectives in a Changing World is the first comprehensive exploration of key emerging issues facing developing-country agriculture today, from rapid urbanization to rural transformation to climate change. In this four-part volume, top experts offer the latest research in the field of agricultural development. Using new lenses to examine today’s biggest challenges, contributors address topics such as nutrition and health, gender and household decision-making, agrifood value chains, natural resource management, and political economy. The book also covers most developing regions, providing a critical global perspective at a time when many pressing challenges ex...
Climate change Impacts and Household Resilience
This food policy report is a response to growing concerns about the impacts of climate change on Latin American economies, agriculture, and people. It assesses both local and global effects of changing agricultural yields on the economy, subnational regions, and different household types, including male- and female-headed households in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru. The three countries reflect economic and geographic diversity in Latin America and more than half of the region’s population. Climate change impacts tend to be relatively small at an economywide level in all three countries. However, sectoral and household-level economic impacts tend to be diverse across countries and subnational le...
Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation in the Republic of Korea to 2050
As the effects of climate change set in, and population and income growth exert increasing pressure on natural resources, food security is becoming a pressing challenge for countries worldwide. Awareness of these threats is critical to transforming concern into long-term planning, and modeling tools like the one used in the present study are beneficial for strategic support of decision making in the agricultural policy arena. The focus of this investigation is the Republic of Korea, where economic growth has resulted in large shifts in diet in recent decades, in parallel with a decline in both arable land and agricultural production, and a tripling of agricultural imports, compared to the ea...
Quantitative foresight modeling to inform the CGIAR research portfolio
This report provides a quantitative assessment of the impacts of alternative investment options on the CGIAR’s SLOs (relating to poverty – SLO1, food and nutrition security – SLO2, and natural resources and ecosystem services – SLO3) in the context of changes in population, income, technology, and climate to 2050 as well as for key SDGs of importance to the developing world. The report serves as a source of information and evidence of the impact of CGIAR efforts in agricultural R&D as well as the role of complementary investments. It is intended to help the CGIAR Centers, CG Research Programs (CRP), system management, and donors to complement other efforts to assess the overall impact and benefits of investing in international and national agricultural research programs.
International model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade-standard IFPRI multimarket model (IMPACT-SIMM): Technical description for version 1
The International Food Policy Research Institute’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) supports analysis of long-term challenges and opportunities for food, agriculture, and natural resources at global and regional scales. IMPACT is continually being updated and improved to better inform the choices that decisionmakers face today. This document describes a new country-level version of the model. IMPACT-SIMM (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade–Standard IFPRI Multimarket Model) is a partial equilibrium, multi-market, simulation model of the production, supply, and demand of agricultural commoditie...
West African Agriculture and Climate Change
The first of three books in IFPRI's climate change in Africa series, West African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis examines the food security threats facing 11 of the countries that make up West Africa -- Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo -- and explores how climate change will increase the efforts needed to achieve sustainable food security throughout the region. West Africa's population is expected to grow at least through mid-century. The region will also see income growth. Both will put increased pressure on the natural resources needed to produce food, and climate change makes the challeng...
