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Strategic foresight in One CGIAR: Gaps and needs in approaches and capacity
This synthesis brief draws on an extensive body of published studies and the latest working papers produced as part of foresight-related research supported by the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). It offers a focused, forward-looking perspective on key issues to support discussions on food, land, and water systems transformation and the role of foresight in helping better understand our dynamic future.
Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system
This report assesses the cost of adaptation to climate change across a range of future climate scenarios and investment options. We focus on offsetting climate change impacts on hunger through investment in agricultural research, water management, and rural infrastructure in developing countries. We link climate, crop, water, and economic models to (1) analyze scenarios of future change in the agriculture sector to 2050 and (2) assess trade-offs for these investments across key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for poverty, hunger, and water. Our reference projections show that climate change slows progress toward eliminating hunger, with an additional 78 million people facing chronic hun...
Quantitative foresight modeling to inform the CGIAR research portfolio
This report provides a quantitative assessment of the impacts of alternative investment options on the CGIAR’s SLOs (relating to poverty – SLO1, food and nutrition security – SLO2, and natural resources and ecosystem services – SLO3) in the context of changes in population, income, technology, and climate to 2050 as well as for key SDGs of importance to the developing world. The report serves as a source of information and evidence of the impact of CGIAR efforts in agricultural R&D as well as the role of complementary investments. It is intended to help the CGIAR Centers, CG Research Programs (CRP), system management, and donors to complement other efforts to assess the overall impact and benefits of investing in international and national agricultural research programs.
Climate change and agricultural policy options
Climate change is a significant and growing threat to food security—already affecting vulnerable populations in many developing countries, and expected to affect ever more people in more places, unless action is taken beginning today. Current scenarios for business-as-usual farming under climate change project growing food security challenges by 2050. Worst hit will be underdeveloped regions of the world where food insecurity is already a problem and populations are vulnerable to shocks (Rosegrant et al. 2014). Improvements in agricultural technology and management are expected to increase food security, but if we do not address climate change, climate-related losses in crop and livestock ...
Land Quality, Agricultural Productivity, and Food Security
'Action is needed to fight poverty by sustaining the environment and the use of natural resources. Land Quality, Agricultural Productivity, and Food Security explores a range of factors driving food security. The book offers an assessment to link quality of the available land resources with productivity of land and the ability to ensure food security. It offers a mixture of broad-scale assessments across the globe, with detailed case studies, deepening our understanding of economics and decision-making mechanisms. It is recommended to researchers, as well as actors in the private and public domain, who are keen to improve their understanding of the appropriate actions that ensure food securi...
Who will be fed in the 21st century?
Global food production has more than doubled over the past 40 years, growing faster than population, and will likely keep pace in the 21st century. Yet today one-eighth of the world's people lack secure access to the food they need to live active and healthy lives. This volume describes how together innovative technologies and sound policies can help close the global food gap -- the gap between demand for and supply of food. Although markets will continue to supply sufficient food to those with money to spend, getting food to the poor will require that government policies and investments supplement the operation of markets in three critical areas: protecting the natural resources on which ag...
Agricultural Resources and Environmental Indicators
This book describes trends in resources used in and affected by agricultural production (including natural, produced, and management resources), as well as the economic conditions and policies that influence agricultural resource use and its environmental impacts. Each chapter provides a concise overview of a specific topic with links to sources of additional information.
Quantifying the cost and benefits of ending hunger and undernutrition: Examining the differences among alternative approaches
This brief examines estimates produced by several recent model simulations and frameworks that focus on the cost of ending hunger as well as progress toward other development goals—estimates that range from US$7 billion to US$265 billion per year. The differences among these estimates are largely attributable to the different targeted objectives and policy questions of each modeling exercise, different investment strategies considered, and varying assumptions about the role of different sectors in reducing hunger.
Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation in the Republic of Korea to 2050
As the effects of climate change set in, and population and income growth exert increasing pressure on natural resources, food security is becoming a pressing challenge for countries worldwide. Awareness of these threats is critical to transforming concern into long-term planning, and modeling tools like the one used in the present study are beneficial for strategic support of decision making in the agricultural policy arena. The focus of this investigation is the Republic of Korea, where economic growth has resulted in large shifts in diet in recent decades, in parallel with a decline in both arable land and agricultural production, and a tripling of agricultural imports, compared to the ea...
