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Inward and Outward Spillovers in the SACU Area
Spillovers from South Africa into the other members of the Souther Africa Customs Union (known as the BLNS for Botstwana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland) are substantial reflecting sizeable real and financial interlinkages. However, shocks to real GDP growth in South Africa do not seem to systematically affect growth developments in BLNS countries as a group. Nevertheless, vector autoregressions, which allow country-specific parameters, suggest some strong spillovers onto the smaller economies.
Namibia
This report reviews economic development of Namibia in the recent years after the global crisis. The country bounced back very well after the crisis. Namibia exhibited strong performance in the primary sectors, which has led to remarkable growth in the second half of 2012. The government has launched a three-year fiscal initiative to enhance job opportunities and preserve fiscal and external sustainability. Plans have been identified to strengthen banks, control mortgages, and improve the education system. The Executive Board has appreciated Namibia’s strong macroeconomic performance.
2018 Interim Surveillance Review
"Fund surveillance has become better adapted to the global conjuncture, and more integrated and risk-based. The recommendations of the 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) focused on helping members navigate the post crisis challenges. Bilateral and multilateral surveillance discussions are underpinned by a shared and deeper understanding of global interconnectedness and linkages across sectors. There has also been progress in core areas such as risk work, fiscal and external sector analysis, and in integration of macrofinancial analysis and of macrostructural policy work that aims to reinvigorate productivity and growth, and promote inclusiveness. The ongoing efforts to align surveillan...
United Republic of Tanzania
Context and outlook. Economic growth is recovering from the impact of the unfavorable global economic environment and domestic factors. Growth is expected to continue strengthening, supported by improvements in the business environment and subsiding global commodity prices. Inflation is projected to remain within the central bank’s target range. Growth-friendly fiscal consolidation is underway, anchored by the ECF arrangement, and the current account deficit is narrowing reflecting fiscal consolidation, easing commodity prices, and tight external financing conditions. The medium-term outlook is positive contingent on implementation of the authorities’ reform agenda, anchored by the ECF arrangement. Climate change poses a major threat, as Tanzania is highly vulnerable but not well-prepared to address the effects of climate change.
The Gambia
This IMF Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation presents economic development and policies of Tthe Gambia. The IMF report shows that Tthe Gambia’s economy is picking up slowly from the past drought conditions. The Gambian Programme for Accelerated Growth and Employment (PAGE) emphasizes fiscal adjustment, together with infrastructure investment and structural reforms to support inclusive growth. Fiscal adjustment is needed to ease the heavy debt burden, arising mainly from domestic debt. Execution of the PAGE, supported by commitments from development partners, would help reduce poverty, especially in rural areas, given a strong focus on agriculture.
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Sub-Saharan Africa
Growth momentum in sub-Saharan Africa remains fragile, marking a break from the rapid expansion witnessed since the turn of the millennium. 2016 was a difficult year for many countries, with regional growth dipping to 1.4 percent—the lowest level of growth in more than two decades. Most oil exporters were in recession, and conditions in other resource-intensive countries remained difficult. Other nonresource-intensive countries however, continued to grow robustly. A modest recovery in growth of about 2.6 percent is expected in 2017, but this falls short of past trends and is too low to put sub-Saharan Africa back on a path of rising living standards. While sub-Saharan Africa remains a region with tremendous growth potential, the deterioration in the overall outlook partly reflects insufficient policy adjustment. In that context, and to reap this potential, strong and sound domestic policy measures are needed to restart the growth engine.
Energy Subsidy Reform
Energy subsidies are aimed at protecting consumers, however, subsidies aggravate fiscal imbalances, crowd out priority public spending, and depress private investment, including in the energy sector. This book provides the most comprehensive estimates of energy subsidies currently available for 176 countries and an analysis of “how to do” energy subsidy reform, drawing on insights from 22 country case studies undertaken by the IMF staff and analyses carried out by other institutions.
Understanding Inflation in Malawi
This paper focuses on the role of the pass-through of the exchange rate and policydeterminants in driving inflation. Using linear and nonlinear frameworks, the paper finds: (i) after the switch to a floating exchange rate regime in 2012, nonfood prices not only directly influence headline inflation, but also have an significant impact on food inflation via second round effects; (ii) the pass-through of the exchange rate to headline inflation has jumped from zero to 11 percent under the floating regime, after controlling for other factors; (iii) the improved significance of T-bill rates in shaping inflation flags its importance in Malawi’s monetary framework although the monetary transmission mechanism needs further strengthening; (iv) the increased impact of broad money underscores the necessity for fiscal discipline and central bank independence.
A Governance Dividend for Sub-Saharan Africa?
Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) tend to lag those in most other regions in terms of governance and perceptions of corruption. Weak governance undermines economic performance through various channels, including deficiencies in government functions and distortions to economic incentives. It thus stands to reason that SSA countries could strengthen their economic performance by improving governance and reducing corruption. This paper estimates that strengthening governance and mitigating corruption in the region could be associated with large growth dividends in the long run. While the process would take considerable time and effort, moving the average SSA country governance level to the global average could increase the region’s GDP per capita growth by about 1-2 percentage points.
Mali
This paper discusses Mali’s Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion. Economic activity in Mali remains robust, aided both by higher public investment and accommodative monetary conditions. Inflation remains subdued, helped by favorable weather conditions and low global inflation. The external position has weakened, reflecting strong domestic demand growth, but is expected to strengthen in the near term as terms of trade improve and demand growth slows down. The near-term outlook remains positive but is subject to downside risks, stemming mainly from the fragile security conditions.
