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A Economia do Ajuste Fiscal
Todos os brasileiros recebem diretamente indiretamente benefícios do Estado Brasileiro e isso tem tornado o país altamente vulnerável. Este livro fala de um Brasil que tem tudo para dar certo. Que pode mudar a regra do jogo e se tornar um país muito sólido. O livro narra, de uma forma sistematizada, sobre a questão fiscal brasileira, como o programa de ajuste fiscal amplamente discutido em 2015, e as dificuldades do país em fechar as suas contas públicas. Coloca ao leitor uma série que questões do seu dia a dia que estão diretamente associadas com essas dificuldades e o desafia a pensar sobre o efeito dos benefícios que ele provavelmente recebe do Estado e que devem ser revistos. O livro é rico em dados e gráficos que dizem por si sobre o assunto, facilitando a sua leitura. A narrativa é suave;Tema em voga.
Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets
We investigate the role of financial dollarization in the determination of real interest rates in emerging economies. In a simple analytical model, we show that a strategy of "dedollarizing" the economy, if it fails to address fundamental macroeconomic risks, leads to higher domestic real interest rates. We confirm this prediction in an empirical model, but find that the effect is small after controlling for the risks of dilution and default. Brazil provides a natural case study given its low degree of financial dollarization and very high real interest rates. The estimated model is unable to explain the high interest rate levels in the aftermath of Brazil's 1994 inflation stabilization. However, since the adoption in 1999 of inflation targeting and floating exchange rates, Brazil's real interest rates are gradually converging to the model's predicted values. The estimation also shows that further drops in Brazil's real interest rates could be achieved more effectively through improvements in fundamentals that lead to investment-grade status rather than through financial dollarization.
What Have We Learned?
Top economists consider how to conduct policy in a world where previous beliefs have been shattered by the recent financial and economic crises. Since 2008, economic policymakers and researchers have occupied a brave new economic world. Previous consensuses have been upended, former assumptions have been cast into doubt, and new approaches have yet to stand the test of time. Policymakers have been forced to improvise and researchers to rethink basic theory. George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate and one of this volume's editors, compares the crisis to a cat stuck in a tree, afraid to move. In April 2013, the International Monetary Fund brought together leading economists and economic policymakers to...
The Puzzle of Brazil's High Interest Rates
This paper highlights that real interest rates in Brazil have declined substantially over time, but are still well above the average of emerging market inflation targeting regimes. The adoption of an inflation-targeting regime and better economic fundamentals (reduction in inflation volatility and improvements in the fiscal and external positions) has helped Brazil sustain significantly lower real interest rates than in the past. Going forward, the paper shows that Brazil can converge towards lower equilibrium real interest rates if domestic savings increase to the level of other emerging market countries. The effect is particularly pronounced if the increase in domestic savings is achieved through higher levels of public savings. Still, econometric results suggest that, controlling for everything else in the model, real interest rates in Brazil are about two full percentage points higher than in other countries in the sample, suggesting that there are still Brazil-specific factors that have not been captured by the empirical analysis. Some of these factors may include credit market segmentation and inflation inertia generated by still pervasive indexation practices.
