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Commodity Prices and Markets
Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Chained Credit Contracts and Financial Accelerators
Based on the financial accelerator model of Bernanke et al. (1999), we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model for a chain of credit contracts in which financial intermediaries (hereafter FIs) as well as entrepreneurs are subject to credit constraints. Financial intermediation takes place through chained-credit contracts, lending from the market to FIs, and from FIs to entrepreneurs. Calibrated to U.S. data, our model shows that the chained credit contracts enhance the financial accelerator effect, depending on the net worth distribution across sectors: (1) our model reinforces the effects of the net worth shock and the technology shock, compared with a model that omits the FIs' credit friction a la Bernanke et al. (1999); (2) the sectoral shock to FIs has a greater impact than the sectoral shock to entrepreneurs; and (3) the redistribution of net worth from entrepreneurs to FIs reduces the amplification of the technology shock. The key features of the results arise from the asymmetry of the two borrowing sectors: smaller net worth and larger bankruptcy costs of FIs relative to those of entrepreneurs.--Author's abstract.
Monetary Policy and the Lost Decade
This paper investigates how monetary policy can help ward off a protracted deflationary slump when policy rates are near the zero bound by studying the experience of Japan during the "Lost Decade" which followed the asset-price bubble collapse in the early 1990s. Estimation results based on a structural model suggest that the Bank of Japan's interest-rate policy fits a conventional forward-looking reaction function with an inflation target of about 1 percent. The disappointing economic performance thus seems primarily due to a series of adverse economic shocks rather than an extraordinary policy error. In addition, counterfactual policy simulations based on the estimated structural model suggest that simply raising the inflation target would not have yielded a lasting improvement in performance. However, a price-targeting rule or a policy rule that combined a higher inflation target with a more aggressive response to output would have achieved superior stabilization results.
Tumultuous Times
A rare insider's account of the inner workings of the Japanese economy, and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, by a career central banker The Japanese economy, once the envy of the world for its dynamism and growth, lost its shine after a financial bubble burst in early 1990s and slumped further during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. It suffered even more damage in 2011, when a severe earthquake set off the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster. However, the Bank of Japan soldiered on to combat low inflation, low growth, and low interest rates, and in many ways it served as a laboratory for actions taken by central banks in other parts of the world. Masaaki Shirakawa, who led the bank as governor from 2008 to 2013, provides a rare insider's account of the workings of Japanese economic and monetary policy during this period and how it challenged mainstream economic thinking.
Balance-Sheet Shocks and Recapitalizations
We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions on both financial intermediaries and goods-producing firms. In this context, due to high leverage of financial intermediaries, balance sheet disruptions in the financial sector are particularly detrimental for aggregate output. We show that the welfare gains from recapitalizing the financial sector in response to large but rare net worth losses are as large as those from eliminating business cycle fluctuations. We also find that these gains are increasing in the size of the net worth loss, are larger when recapitalization funds are raised from the household rather than the real sector, and may increase with a reduction in financial intermediaries idiosyncratic risk.
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 4
This paper empirically evaluates four types of costs that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the financial system, and political costs to the authorities. It finds that the economic costs are generally significant but short-lived, and sometimes do not operate through conventional channels. The political consequences of a debt crisis, by contrast, seem to be particularly dire for incumbent governments and finance ministers, broadly in line with what happens in currency crises.
Energy and Sustainability VI
Diverse topics covered in this title containing the conference proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Energy and Sustainability involve interdisciplinary cooperation to arrive at optimum solutions, including materials, energy networks, new energy resources, storage solutions, waste to energy systems, smart grids and many others. Energy and Sustainability VI focuses on energy matters and the need to respond to the modern world’s dependency on conventional fuels. The continuous use of fossil fuels has generated an increasing amount of interest in renewable energy resources and the search for sustainable energy policies. This book also presents the following topics: Sustainable En...
Monetary and Financial Cooperation in East Asia
This edited volume evaluates the prospects for monetary and financial cooperation in East Asia after the crises in the developed countries (2008 in the US, 2010 in Europe).
Dynamic Aspects of Productivity Spillovers, Terms of Trade and the "home Market Effects"
"In this paper, we first set up a model that incorporates firm dynamics into the Global Economy Model (henceforth, GEM) developed by the IMF Research Department. Then, we show how the economic variables respond to the shocks that shift the production frontier outwards, namely productivity gains in manufacturing, efficiency gains in creating new firms, and an increase in the labor force. Contrary to the model used in previous research on the same topic by Corsetti, Martin and Pesenti (2007, henceforth, CMP), our model contains rich and realistic dynamics embedded in the GEM such as a time-to-build constraint for firm dynamics, and nominal price and wage stickiness. We show that (1) the analyt...
Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Regulation with Financial Frictions
An integrated analysis of how financial frictions can be accounted for in macroeconomic models built to study monetary policy and macroprudential regulation. Since the global financial crisis, there has been a renewed effort to emphasize financial frictions in designing closed- and open-economy macroeconomic models for monetary and macroprudential policy analysis. Drawing on the extensive literature of the past decade as well as his own contributions, in this book Pierre-Richard Agénor provides a unified set of theoretical and quantitative macroeconomic models with financial frictions to explore issues that have emerged in the wake of the crisis. These include the need to understand better ...
