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Changing the Narrative
Narratives provide the storylines of conflict and in doing so become an arena of conflict themselves. When states mount information campaigns against each other, they are trying to change the narrative. The digital platforms of the new information environment have been identified by various analysts as a significant factor in contemporary strategy and crisis management. But while social media is noisier and more chaotic than traditional media, and unprecedented in its immediacy and accessibility, has it thus far been a game changer in strategic affairs? In this Adelphi book, Sir Lawrence Freedman and Heather Williams examine the impact of state-led digital information – or disinformation â...
To Rule the Waves
From a brilliant Brookings Institution expert, an “important” (The Wall Street Journal) and “penetrating historical and political study” (Nature) of the critical role that oceans play in the daily struggle for global power, in the bestselling tradition of Robert Kaplan’s The Revenge of Geography. For centuries, oceans were the chessboard on which empires battled for supremacy. But in the nuclear age, air power and missile systems dominated our worries about security, and for the United States, the economy was largely driven by domestic production, with trucking and railways that crisscrossed the continent serving as the primary modes of commercial transit. All that has changed, as ...
Influence and Escalation
Technology-enabled influence operations, including disinformation, will likely figure prominently in adversary efforts to impede U.S. crisis response and alliance management in high-risk, high-impact scenarios under a nuclear shadow. Both Russia and China recognize their conventional military disadvantage vis-Ă -vis conflict with the United States. As a result, both nations use sub-conventional tactics and operations to support their preferred strategies for achieving favorable outcomes while attempting to limit escalation risks. Such strategies include an array of activities loosely identified as influence operations, focused on using and manipulating information in covert, deniable, or obs...
China’s Grand Strategy
To explore what extended competition between the United States and China might entail out to 2050, the authors of this report identified and characterized China’s grand strategy, analyzed its component national strategies (diplomacy, economics, science and technology, and military affairs), and assessed how successful China might be at implementing these over the next three decades.
International Governance and the Rule of Law in China under the Belt and Road Initiative
Evaluates the challenges and changes that the Belt and Road Initiative brings to China in international law and governance.
Mapping White Identity Terrorism and Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremism
The authors reviewed literature on White identity terrorism and racially or ethnically motivated violent extremism (REMVE) and analyzed social media data from six platforms that host extremist content. They developed a network map that evaluates REMVE network construction, connectivity, geographic location, and proclivity to violence and found that users in the United States are overwhelmingly responsible for REMVE discourse online.
Great Power Competition and Overseas Bases
What challenges and risks do Chinese and Russian bases pose to the United States’ military strategy? How do the military postures of great powers interact and with what consequences for regional and global security? This book examines the emerging dynamics of geostrategic competition for overseas military bases and base access. The comparative framework adopted in this volume examines how the geopolitical interests of the United States, China, and Russia and their respective underlying force posture interact in different regions including the Indo-Pacific, Europe, sub-Sahara Africa, the Indian Ocean, the Middle East, and the Arctic Circle. By exploring the security, political economic, and domestic political dynamics of specific regions, the contributors to this volume reveal varied motivations for overseas military bases and base access among great powers. With analysis on the particular dynamics of overseas bases in major regional theaters, the book offers a valuable window into the nature and scope of the broader “great power competition” underway in the twenty-first century.
China's Quest for Military Supremacy
China’s military has entered a new era. It has acquired modern weapons to rival the world’s finest, undergone a massive restructuring under Xi Jinping, and been on the frontlines of territorial disputes with Japan, India, Vietnam, and the Philippines. It is readying forces to be able to seize Taiwan sometime in the next decade. It aims to be a “world-class” military on par with the United States. China’s Quest for Military Supremacy provides a broad and accessible exploration of Chinese military power, including relations between the Chinese Communist Party and its army, the strategic worldview of Chinese leaders, military strategy and resourcing, conventional and nuclear modernization, military diplomacy and coercion, preparations for war, and the People’s Liberation Army’s emerging global role. It also identifies the challenges facing China’s military and shows how its focus on supremacy in the region means that it is not yet prepared to fight with the same lethality beyond Asia. Different futures are possible, and the book concludes with a preview of what it might take for a truly “world-class” Chinese military to take the global stage.
The New Calculus of Escalation
A reevaluation of conflict thresholds in the context of complex cyber, conventional, and nuclear war The return of great power competition has renewed concerns about managing escalation, lest a minor crisis inadvertently spiral into nuclear war. This has become apparent during the war between Russia and Ukraine, as Western aid for Ukraine has been predicated on avoiding Russian escalation. The New Calculus of Escalation updates our understanding of conflict escalation dynamics for the twenty-first century with the goal of reducing the possibility of a catastrophic war. To improve mutual understanding among states, Libicki rethinks conflict thresholds and exit ramps that manage escalation. During the Cold War, there were two critical thresholds—one between peace and war, and one between conventional war and nuclear war. But ongoing developments in cyber and other advanced military technologies threaten command and control and blur the old thresholds. Military strategists, international relations scholars, and graduate students will benefit from this book's cogent analytic framework in shaping future debates.
