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Do Taxes Matter for Long-Run Growth? Harberger's Superneutrality Conjecture
Harberger’s superneutrality conjecture contends that, although in theory the mix of direct and indirect taxes affects investment and growth, in practice growth effects of taxation are negligible. This paper provides evidence in support of this view by testing the predictions of endogenous growth models driven by human capital accumulation. The theoretical analysis highlights implications of different taxes for growth and investment in these models. The empirical work is based on cross-country regressions and numerical simulations, using a new methodology for estimating aggregate effective tax rates. Results show significant investment effects from income and consumption taxes that are consistent with small growth effects. The results are robust to the introduction of other growth determinants.
Do Long-Run Productivity Differentials Explain Long-Run Real Exchange Rates?
We develop a two-country, balanced-growth intertemporal general equilibrium model to examine two predictions of the Balassa-Samuelson model, namely that (i) productivity differentials determine the domestic relative price of nontradables and (ii) deviations from purchasing power parity reflect differences in the relative price of nontradables. In our model, the equilibrium relative price of nontradables along the long-run balanced-growth path is determined by the ratio of the marginal products of labor in the tradable and nontradable sectors. The empirical relevance of the Balassa-Samuelson predictions is examined using the Hodrick-Prescott filter to extract long-run components from a panel database for fourteen OECD countries. The evidence indicates that labor productivity differentials do explain long-run, cross-country differences in relative prices. The predicted relative prices, however, are of little help in explaining long-run deviations from purchasing power parity.
Lending Cycles
We investigate the lending behavior of banks by exploiting a rich panel dataset on the contract terms of approximately two million commercial and industrial loans granted by 580 banks between 1977-1993. Using a Markov switching panel model we demonstrate that banks change their lending standards from tightness to laxity systematically over the cycle. We then use an efficient minimum chi-square estimator to examine the relationship between the cyclical component of aggregate unemployment and bank lending standards when both variables are jointly endogenously determined in a system of simultaneous equations with mixed, continuous/discrete dependent variables. The patterns we uncover suggest that lax lending standards that tend to occur during expansions exert considerable influence on the dynamics of aggregate fluctuations.
Time-to-build and Cycles
We analyze the dynamics of a simple growth model in which production occurs with a delay while new capital is installed (time-to-build). The time-to-build technology is shown to yield a system of functional (delay) differential equations with a unique steady state. We demonstrate that the steady state, though typically a saddle, may exhibit Hopf cycles on a measurable set of the parameter space. Furthermore, the optimal path to the steady state is oscillatory. A counter-example to the claim that intrinsically oscillatory on the central technical apparatus the mathematics of functional differential equations.
Capital Income Taxation and Risk-taking in a Small Open Economy
How do capital income taxes affect household portfolio choice and growth? We" approach this question within the context of a stochastic model of a small open economy in" which taxes on income from domestic capital (equity) and foreign bonds affect household" portfolio choice, welfare and the growth rate of the economy. The theoretical and numerical" analysis demonstrates the important role that risk plays in determining the mean and variability" of growth as well as the conditions under which a higher tax rate can be welfare improving. To" shed more light on the complex theoretical interaction between taxes and risk-taking we estimate" a reduced-form multinomial probit model of household portfolio choice using the method of" simulated moments. The empirical evidence is in stark contrast to the conventional wisdom " we find that higher taxes make it less likely that the household will hold risky assets."
Estimating Conditional Functional Multipliers
Spending based fiscal adjustment requires decisions on when? and how much to cut public spending to minimise adverce effects on economic growth. This requires precise estimates of the response of output to changes in the functional components of public spending. I call this the functional multiplier. I disaggregate government spending in 36 low-income countries over the Period 1984-2013 into its functional components. Using a GMM-IV model with fuel subsidies as the instrument for government spending I exploit difference in the length of exposure to statehood as a proxy for current absorptive capacity to estimate functional multipliers conditional on absorptive capacity. The estimated functio...
