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Forewarned
Whether it's an unforeseen financial crash, a shock election result or an expected barbecue season that sees record rainfall, forecasts have impacts on us all. But do forecasters tell you all that they know or what they really believe? When is your gut feeling likely to be better than a computer's prediction? Can you accurately predict your own emotional reaction to future events like a new job or a new house? And when is a 'forecast' not a forecast? Forewarned will answer these questions, and many more besides, covering a wide range of topics, from business to politics, sport and lotteries to that old perennial, the weather. Forewarned is a consumer's guide to prediction, based on the very latest scientific research. By the end of the book you'll be better placed to make informed decisions in a volatile world. You'll know when forecasts can be a reliable guide to the vicissitudes and uncertainties of the future - and when they are best ignored.
Something Doesn’t Add Up
Some people fear and mistrust numbers. Others want to use them for everything. After a long career as a statistician, Paul Goodwin has learned the hard way that the ones who want to use them for everything are a very good reason for the rest of us to fear and mistrust them. Something Doesn't Add Up is a fieldguide to the numbers that rule our world, even though they don't make sense. Wry, witty and humane, Goodwin explains mathematical subtleties so painlessly that you hardly need to think about numbers at all. He demonstrates how statistics that are meant to make life simpler often make it simpler than it actually is, but also reveals some of the ways we really can use maths to make better decisions. Enter the world of fitness tracking, the history of IQ testing, China's social credit system, Effective Altruism, and learn how someone should have noticed that Harold Shipman was killing his patients years before they actually did. In the right hands, maths is a useful tool. It's just a pity there are so many of the wrong hands about.
Saving Scottish Football
This is the first book to take account of the current state of Scottish football since the demise of Glasgow Rangers. Paul Goodwin convened a panel of Scottish Football experts to take stock of the game as it stands and to come up with proposals for its future.
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.
Profit From Your Forecasting Software
Go beyond technique to master the difficult judgement calls of forecasting A variety of software can be used effectively to achieve accurate forecasting, but no software can replace the essential human component. You may be new to forecasting, or you may have mastered the statistical theory behind the software’s predictions, and even more advanced “power user” techniques for the software itself—but your forecasts will never reach peak accuracy unless you master the complex judgement calls that the software cannot make. Profit From Your Forecasting Software addresses the issues that arise regularly, and shows you how to make the correct decisions to get the most out of your software. ...
Introducing Human Geographies, Third Edition
Introducing Human Geographies is the leading guide to human geography for undergraduate students, explaining new thinking on essential topics and discussing exciting developments in the field. This new edition has been thoroughly revised and updated and coverage is extended with new sections devoted to biogeographies, cartographies, mobilities, non-representational geographies, population geographies, public geographies and securities. Presented in three parts with 60 contributions written by expert international researchers, this text addresses the central ideas through which human geographers understand and shape their subject. Part I: Foundations engages students with key ideas that defin...
The Last Navigator
An extraordinary first-person story of a boy from the Queensland bush who survived the dangers of Bomber Command to become Qantas' last navigator. 'A wonderful book that tells a remarkable and heroic story.' AIR CHIEF MARSHAL SIR ANGUS HOUSTON AK, AFC (RET'D) The choking, chest-tightening feeling of being trapped in a burning Lancaster, enduring the uncertainty, you count down the requisite 60 seconds for the tanks to blow. Your skip has thrown off the fighters with yet another brilliant corkscrew manoeuvre but will you get your badly wounded bomber home? Gordon Goodwin was a decorated airman and an inspired leader. During World War II he served in probably the most dangerous occupation of a...
Electric Pioneer
First musical study of electro hero, Gary Numan, best known for no 1 single "Cars."
Canoeing
This is a thoroughly modern book on the traditional open canoe. It covers all aspects of the open canoe, from design to wilderness travel. What really sets it apart is its focus on canoeing techniques. Ray Goodwin is the UK's best known and (many would go so far as to say) foremost canoe coach. By introducing some of the latest canoeing performance skills, based on what he has discovered through decades of coaching and guiding, he sets out to inspire a new generation of paddlers. Through clear language and the use of photographs acquired over many years of paddling around the world, he shares some real insights of the reality of canoeing; sometimes gritty, but always enthralling. New in the ...
Brexit
The first comprehensive, authoritative study of the political, economic and social forces which led to Brexit and its likely consequences.
