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Adaptive Control of COVID-19 Outbreaks in India
Managing the outbreak of COVID-19 in India constitutes an unprecedented health emergency in one of the largest and most diverse nations in the world. On May 4, 2020, India started the process of releasing its population from a national lockdown during which extreme social distancing was implemented. We describe and simulate an adaptive control approach to exit this situation, while maintaining the epidemic under control. Adaptive control is a flexible counter-cyclical policy approach, whereby different areas release from lockdown in potentially different gradual ways, dependent on the local progre of the dis- ease. Because of these features, adaptive control requires the ability to decrease ...
South Asia Economic Focus
South Asia region’s economies are beginning to recover, though unevenly: economic activity in industry and export sectors have recovered to pre-COVID levels but some labor-intensive services sectors and tourism have not. Inequality has worsened on many dimensions. The process of vaccinating South Asia’s population is underway, with India taking a leading role in production. The socioeconomic benefits of vaccinating most South Asians as soon as possible outweighs the cost by multiple times, and thus justifies having public sector financing. Cracks in the primary health care system became evident since the pandemic began, and the vaccine rollout is likely to have other additional challenges such as delays in production, bottlenecks in supply chain logistics and vaccine hesitancy from some groups (which could delay the process of herd immunity). There are also tradeoffs in the priorities that should be established in deciding who gets the vaccine first.
Vaccine Allocation Priorities Using Disease Surveillance and Economic Data
Vaccination is a critical tool, along with suppression and treatment, for controlling epidemics such as SARS-CoV-2. To maximize the impact of vaccination, doses should be allocated to the highest value targets, accounting for health and potential economic benefits. We examine what allocation strategy is optimal and how to translate that strategy into actionable procurement decisions in the context of India. We compare 3 different allocation strategies (oldest first, highest contact rate first, random order) across 4 outcomes (lives saved, life-years saved, value of statistical lives saved, value of statistical life-years saved). We make 3 methodological contributions. First, we estimate the ...
Can Blockchain Solve the Hold-up Problem in Contracts?
A vexing problem in contract law is modification. Two parties sign a contract but before they fully perform, they modify the contract. Should courts enforce the modified agreement? A private remedy is for the parties to write a contract that is robust to hold-up or that makes the facts relevant to modification verifiable. Provisions accomplishing these ends are renegotiation-design and revelation mechanisms. But implementing them requires commitment power. Conventional contract technologies to ensure commitment – liquidated damages – are disfavored by courts and themselves subject to renegotiation. Smart contracts written on blockchain ledgers offer a solution. We explain the basic economics and legal relevance of these technologies, and we argue that they can implement liquidated damages without courts. We address the hurdles courts may impose to use of smart contracts on blockchain and show that sophisticated parties' ex ante commitment to them may lead courts to allow their use as pre-commitment devices.
The Story of Spanish
The authors of The Story of French are back with a new linguistic history of the Spanish language and its progress around the globe. Just how did a dialect spoken by a handful of shepherds in Northern Spain become the world's second most spoken language, the official language of twenty-one countries on two continents, and the unofficial second language of the United States? Jean-Benoît Nadeau and Julie Barlow, the husband-and-wife team who chronicled the history of the French language in The Story of French, now look at the roots and spread of modern Spanish. Full of surprises and honed in Nadeau and Barlow's trademark style, combining personal anecdote, reflections, and deep research, The ...
Heartcare in Ayurved
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Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.
The Future of Healthcare Reform in the United States
When the Supreme Court's majority ruling in NFIB v. Sebelius upheld the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (the PPACA, or Obamacare), it was clear that this major shift in American health care provision was here to stay. For better or worse, the PPACA is now both a target for, and a constraint on, the next wave of reformist ideas. Driven by curiosity about how the American health care regime will continue to evolve in the near and medium term, Dean Michael Schill and Professor Anup Malani of the University of Chicago Law School commissioned fourteen essays from leading scholars of law, economics, medicine, and public health that offer predictions for the most important issues and deb...
Urban Cognition
Consists of papers previously published in the Journal of environmental psychology.
Introduction to Multi-Armed Bandits
Multi-armed bandits is a rich, multi-disciplinary area that has been studied since 1933, with a surge of activity in the past 10-15 years. This is the first book to provide a textbook like treatment of the subject.
