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Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in the Post-Crisis World
In response to the global financial crisis, governments provided substantial support to the financial and other key sectors. Although this cushioned the adverse effects of the crisis, it is necessary now to articulate a strategy to ensure the sustainability of public finances. This paper discusses the scale and composition of fiscal adjustment that will need to occur once the recovery is securely under way. Although specific country-level circumstances will influence the composition of the adjustment and its political feasibility, in many cases restoring fiscal sustainability will require reforms to reduce spending and increase tax revenue.
Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in the Post-Crisis World
In response to the global financial crisis, governments provided substantial support to the financial and other key sectors. Although this cushioned the adverse effects of the crisis, it is necessary now to articulate a strategy to ensure the sustainability of public finances. This paper discusses the scale and composition of fiscal adjustment that will need to occur once the recovery is securely under way. Although specific country-level circumstances will influence the composition of the adjustment and its political feasibility, in many cases restoring fiscal sustainability will require reforms to reduce spending and increase tax revenue.
IMF Staff Papers
This paper reports for uncovered interest parity (UIP) using daily data for 23 developing and developed countries during the crisis-strewn 1990s. UIP is a classic topic of international finance, a critical building block of most theoretical models, and a dismal empirical failure. UIP states that the interest differential is, on average, equal to the ex post exchange rate change. UIP may work differently for countries in crisis, whose exchange and interest rates both display considerably more volatility. This volatility raises the stakes for financial markets and central banks; it also may provide a more statistically powerful test for the UIP hypothesis. Policy-exploitable deviations from UIP are, therefore, a necessary condition for an interest rate defense. There is a considerable amount of heterogeneity in the results, which differ wildly by country.
Who's Driving Whom? Analyzing External and Intra-Regional Linkages in the Americas
In a global economy beset by concerns over a growth recession, financial volatility, and rising inflation, countries in the Western Hemisphere have been among the few bright spots in recent years. This has not come as a surprise to those following the significant progress achieved by many countries in recent years, both in macroeconomic management and on the structural and institutional front. Hence, there can be little doubt, as this book argues, that economic and financial linkages between Latin America, the United States, and other important regions of the world economy have undergone profound change.
Greece
This study is carried out against a backdrop of deep divisions in Greece and in Europe over how to handle the challenges now confronting Greece. Greece’s deeper medium-term policy needs and identifying ways to replace the expected market financing are discussed. Structural reforms tackled to strengthen the competitiveness and help the country integrate into the euro area. Finally, Greece has specified the policies necessary to overcome recent inertia and deliver program objectives, and a memorandum of financial and economic policies is discussed.
Greece
The short-term objectives are being met, but medium-term targets and sustainability have to be worked on. The impressive fiscal adjustment evident since the crisis erupted is continuing. The Executive Directors commend the Greek government’s determination to focus on overdue spending cuts. However, progress on improving tax administration and public administration reforms needs to be started in earnest. There is concern about debt relief undermining the payment culture. Reforms to open up the economy to competition should be stepped up. The macroeconomic and debt outlook must remain under close review.
Republic of Kosovo
Kosovo has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite policy support, economic activity is estimated to have fallen 6 percent in 2020 on account of the combined effect of strict domestic containment measures and international travel restrictions. The fiscal deficit increased to 7.7 percent of GDP, given the large fall in tax revenues and the implementation of mitigation and recovery measures of 4.2 percent of GDP. The current account deficit is estimated to have increased to 7.5 percent of GDP mainly due to a large decline in diaspora-related inflows, most notably in tourism. Gross international reserves declined but remain adequate in part due to the purchase under the IMF’s Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) in April 2020 and the use of other external financing. Banks have weathered the recession well to date, and the high pre-COVID19 liquidity levels and ample capital buffers bode well for the system’s stability.
Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design
Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design
Ukraine
The authorities have continued to make progress in implementing the program. Notwithstanding the delay in completing this review, mainly related to a difficult approval process of the 2016 budget and political tensions culminating in a change in government in April 2016, important policy measures have been taken since the last review. This includes a sizable fiscal adjustment; a successful completion of the debt operation with private bondholders; the increase in gas and heating tariffs to full cost recovery; and decisive steps to rehabilitate the banking system. However, progress in tackling corruption, privatizing state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and advancing pension reform has been slower than envisaged against significant political resistance.
Deficits and Debt in Industrialized Democracies
Since the global financial crisis, government debt has soared globally by 40 percent and now exceeds an astonishing $100 trillion. Not all countries, though, have fared the same. Indeed, even prior to the financial crisis, the fiscal fates of countries have been diverging, despite predictions that pressures from economic globalization push countries toward more convergent fiscally conservative policies. Featuring the work of an international interdisciplinary team of scholars, this volume explains patterns of fiscal performance (persistent patterns of budget deficits and government debt) from the 1970s to the present across seven countries – France, Italy, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Swed...
