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The Enemy of Good
Introduction -- Definitions and prior work -- Methods -- Results and discussion -- Findings and conclusions
Shaping the Next One Hundred Years
A sophisticated reader ought to view with great skepticism the prospect of answering questions about the long-term future. The checkered history of predicting the future-from the famous declarations that humans would never fly to the Limits to Growth study to claims about the "New Economy"-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the effects of their decisions more than a few months or years ahead. However, today's choices will significantly influence the course of the twenty-first century. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, may transform our ability to reason systematically about the long term. This report reviews traditional methods of grappling with the morrow, from nar...
Advances in Design for Cross-Cultural Activities Part II
This volume explores decision-making styles, including cooperative, collaborative, avoidant, competitive, and dominate that are commonly modified by the culture. Culture is not a stagnant phenomenon, and many variables need to be considered to accurately evaluation cultural differences in decision-making styles. Among many cultural factors, the ind
The Oxford Handbook of Public Policy
This is part of a ten volume set of reference books offering authoritative and engaging critical overviews of the state of political science. This work explores the business end of politics, where theory meets practice in the pursuit of public good.
Organizational Challenges to Regulatory Enforcement and Compliance
Organizational Challenges to Regulatory Enforcement and Compliance: A New Common Sense about Regulation THE ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science September 2013, Volume 649 Special Editor: Susan S. Silbey Following a series of global financial and economic crises at the end of the first decade of the twenty-first century, we hear renewed calls for increased government regulation of the economy (including finance, banking, insurance, communications, environment, and employment) as a necessary safeguard against the excesses of exuberant capitalism. At the same time, opponents argue that government regulation not only dampens market efficiencies and hinders economic gro...
Systems Thinking for Geoengineering Policy
Even by the scientists most closely associated with it, geoengineering – the deliberate intervention in the climate at global scale to mitigate the effects of climate change – is perceived to be risky. For all its potential benefits, there are robust differences of opinion over the wisdom of such an intervention. Systems Thinking for Geoengineering Policy is the first book to theorise geoengineering in terms of complex adaptive systems theory and to argue for the theoretical imperative of adaptive management as the default methodology for an effective low risk means of confronting the inescapable uncertainty and surprise that characterise potential climate futures. The book illustrates h...
Federal Financial Incentives to Induce Early Experience Producing Unconventional Liquid Fuels
This technical report explains an analytic way to design and assess packages of financial incentives that the government can use to cost effectively promote early experience with coal-to-liquids (CTL) production of liquid fuels in the face of significant uncertainty about the future. The report applies two complementary analytic methods. The first uses observations from successful voluntary agreements in the commercial world to identify principles that the government can use to design a relationship with a private investor that is likely to ensure that early CTL production experience occurs cost effectively. Such a relationship yields investor and government behavior that, in turn, generates...
Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking
This report describes an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Its central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Air Force's Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Because many features of the future cannot be predicted with reasonable confidence, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have skill in recognizing adaptations and making them than it is to treat uncertainty merely as an annoyanc...
Reclaiming a Scientific Anthropology
This second edition of Reclaiming a Scientific Anthropology arrives at just the right time, as new advances in science increasingly affect anthropologists of all stripes. Lawrence Kuznar begins by reviewing the basic issues of scientific epistemology in anthropology as they have taken shape over the life of the discipline. He then describes postmodern and other critiques of both science and scientific anthropology, and he concludes with stringent analyses of these debates. This new edition brings this important text firmly into the 21st century; it not only updates the scholarly debates but it describes new research techniques—such as computer modeling systems—that could not have been imagined just a decade ago. In a field that has become increasingly divided over basic methods of reasearch and interpretation, Kuznar makes a powerful argument that anthropology should return to its roots in empirical science.
